螺纹钢，静待需求释放（2026 年 3 月 20 日）

Report Title - The report is titled "Rebar: Awaiting the Release of Demand" [1] Report Date - The report was published on March 20, 2026 [1] Price Movement - Since late February, rebar futures and spot prices have rebounded from their lows. The main contract reached a maximum of 3,167 yuan/ton, with a cumulative increase of nearly 5.4%. During the same period, spot prices in mainstream regions recorded increases ranging from 20 to 80 yuan/ton [2] Core Views - The core support for the recent increase in steel prices lies in the raw material side. Recent positive factors have driven up the prices of iron ore and coking coal, which in turn have led to the rebound of steel prices from their lows. However, the supply-demand pattern of raw materials has not changed substantially, and the current strong trend is mainly due to non-industrial factors. Once these factors fade, the raw material prices will be under pressure, and the cost support for steel will weaken [3] - Rebar demand has improved marginally, which has also contributed to the increase in steel prices. After the Spring Festival, the demand for construction steel has gradually recovered, and high-frequency demand indicators have rebounded from their lows. As of the week of March 13, the weekly apparent demand for rebar was 1.7681 million tons, up for three consecutive weeks after the Spring Festival and slightly higher than the same period last year, with a year-on-year increase of 4.86%. The daily high-frequency transactions have also rebounded from their lows, with the average daily trading volume of construction steel by mainstream traders in March reaching 79,200 tons, a month-on-month increase of 127% [3] - The improvement in rebar demand is mainly due to the good performance of downstream industries. Policy support has led to an increase in fixed asset investment, especially in infrastructure investment. In January-February, infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) increased by 11.4% year-on-year. In addition, the drag from the real estate sector has weakened, although the real estate investment still declined by 11% in January-February, the decline has narrowed significantly compared to the 17.2% decline in the whole year of 2025 [4] - The supply pressure of rebar has increased. The production of rebar has increased, and the inventory is at a high level. As of the week of March 13, the weekly production of rebar reached 1.953 million tons, up for two consecutive weeks and reaching a relatively high level this year. The increase in production mainly comes from the resumption of production by short-process steel mills. The current profitability of steel mills is good, and the production is expected to remain at a high level. In addition, the long-process steel mills are about to resume production, so there is still room for the production of rebar to increase [5] - The inventory of rebar has also increased significantly. The latest inventory is 8.9417 million tons, an increase of 465,200 tons compared to the same period last year. The inventory is mainly concentrated in core consumption areas, mainly due to the active futures-spot arbitrage trading. The current billet inventory is also significantly higher than the same period in previous years, and the overall inventory de-stocking pressure is relatively large, which puts some pressure on steel prices [6] - Overall, the positive factors are gradually fermenting, the raw material side is strong, and the demand has improved marginally, which together support the rebar price to rebound from its low. However, the current production of rebar is at a high level and the inventory is high, so the supply-side pressure still exists. It is expected that rebar will continue to fluctuate at a low level, and whether it can break the pattern still depends on the further release of peak-season demand [6]