工业硅、多晶硅日报（2026 年 3 月 20 日）-20260320

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core View of the Report - On March 19, industrial silicon fluctuated weakly, with the main contract 2605 closing at 8,285 yuan/ton, a daily decline of 1.78%, and the open interest increasing by 6,591 lots to 254,000 lots. The reference price of industrial silicon spot from Baichuan was 9,313 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared to the previous trading day. The price of the lowest deliverable product rebounded to 8,800 yuan/ton, and the spot premium expanded to 515 yuan/ton. Polysilicon fluctuated weakly, with the main contract 2605 closing at 38,550 yuan/ton, a daily decline of 5.77%, and the open interest decreasing by 1,612 lots to 32,966 lots. The price of N-type recycled silicon material from Baichuan dropped to 43,750 yuan/ton, and the price of the lowest deliverable silicon material dropped to 43,750 yuan/ton, with the spot premium narrowing to 5,200 yuan/ton [2]. - The受阻 resumption of production in Xinjiang and the small - scale resumption of production in the southwest of industrial silicon form a structural hedge. The increase in petroleum coke raw materials and the grid electricity price in Xinjiang provide cost support. Downstream rigid - demand stocking is sufficient, but the willingness for incremental stocking is insufficient. The industrial silicon futures market fluctuates in a narrow range, and the spot price stabilizes at the bottom. The actual transactions of polysilicon continue to move towards lower prices. In March, some large factories have start - up plans one after another, the supply contraction situation ends, and the newly added inventory is continuously transferred to warehouse receipts to relieve the pressure of factory inventory backlog. The downstream silicon wafer procurement willingness is low, and polysilicon is expected to continue to bottom - out in the short term. The market is waiting for the specific policy signal of anti - involution in the photovoltaic industry [2]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Research View - The research view mainly analyzes the price trends of industrial silicon and polysilicon on March 19, 2026, including futures prices, spot prices, and the relationship between them. It also analyzes the supply - demand situation and cost factors affecting the two, and predicts the future trends of the two [2]. 2. Daily Data Monitoring Industrial Silicon - Futures settlement prices of the main and near - month contracts decreased, with the main contract dropping from 8,375 yuan/ton to 8,285 yuan/ton, and the near - month contract dropping from 8,325 yuan/ton to 8,255 yuan/ton. Most spot prices of different grades and regions of industrial silicon decreased, and the price difference between 421 and 553 silicon increased by 100 yuan/ton. The lowest deliverable product price remained unchanged at 8,800 yuan/ton, and the spot premium increased to 515 yuan/ton [4]. - In terms of inventory, the industrial silicon warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 21,669, the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory increased from 104,180 tons to 109,880 tons, the inventory at Huangpu Port increased by 1,000 tons, the inventory at Tianjin Port increased by 1,000 tons, the inventory at Kunming Port decreased by 1,000 tons, and the factory inventory increased by 14,300 tons. The total social inventory increased by 15,300 tons to 452,650 tons [4]. Polysilicon - Futures settlement prices of the main and near - month contracts decreased significantly, with the main contract dropping from 40,105 yuan/ton to 38,550 yuan/ton, and the near - month contract dropping from 39,910 yuan/ton to 38,000 yuan/ton. Most spot prices of polysilicon decreased, and the lowest deliverable product price dropped from 45,500 yuan/ton to 43,750 yuan/ton, with the spot premium narrowing to 5,200 yuan/ton [4]. - In terms of inventory, the polysilicon warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 9,910, the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory increased from 310,500 tons to 320,700 tons, the factory inventory decreased by 3,000 tons to 357,000 tons, and the total social inventory decreased by 3,000 tons to 357,000 tons [4]. Organic Silicon - The prices of DMC in the East China market, raw rubber, and 107 glue remained unchanged, while the price of dimethyl silicone oil increased by 1,000 yuan/ton to 15,800 yuan/ton [4]. 3. Chart Analysis 3.1 Industrial Silicon and Cost - end Prices - The charts show the prices of different grades of industrial silicon, grade price differences, regional price differences, electricity prices, silica prices, and coking coal prices [6][8][11]. 3.2 Downstream Product Prices - The charts show the prices of DMC, organic silicon products, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and photovoltaic modules [14][19][20]. 3.3 Inventory - The charts show the futures inventory of industrial silicon and polysilicon, the weekly industry inventory and inventory changes of industrial silicon, the weekly inventory of polysilicon, and the weekly inventory of DMC [22][25]. 3.4 Cost - profit - The charts show the average cost and profit levels of industrial silicon, the weekly cost - profit of industrial silicon, the processing industry profit of polysilicon, the cost - profit of DMC, and the cost - profit of aluminum alloy [28][30][33]. 4. Team Introduction - The research team includes Zhan Dapeng, Wang Heng, and Zhu Xi, who have rich experience in non - ferrous metal research and have won many industry awards [36][37].