碳酸锂日报（2026年3月20日）-20260320

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Yesterday, the lithium carbonate futures contract 2605 dropped 6.73% to 14,600 yuan/ton. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 3,000 yuan/ton to 152,500 yuan/ton, the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate dropped 3,000 yuan/ton to 149,500 yuan/ton, and the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) fell 2,500 yuan/ton to 145,500 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 1,029 tons to 34,740 tons [3]. - On the supply side, the weekly production increased by 760 tons to 24,186 tons, and the lithium carbonate production in March is expected to increase by 28% month - on - month to 106,390 tons. On the demand side, the production of ternary materials in March is expected to increase by 19% month - on - month to 84,360 tons, and the production of lithium iron phosphate is expected to increase by 24% month - on - month to 430,000 tons. On the inventory side, the weekly social inventory of lithium carbonate decreased by 86 tons to 98,873 tons, with downstream inventory increasing by 458 tons to 46,105 tons, inventory in other links decreasing by 860 tons to 36,160 tons, and upstream inventory increasing by 316 tons to 16,608 tons [3]. - Recently, the market sentiment has been dragging down, with bearish news being hyped. The open interest of the main lithium carbonate contract decreased by about 25,000 lots yesterday. Fundamentally, the overall contradiction is not prominent, but the month - on - month situation is gradually weakening. The weekly de - stocking speed has slowed down, and the terminal data is also difficult to boost the market. In the short term, it may still operate weakly, and overseas geopolitics and market sentiment should also be noted. However, the decrease in the absolute inventory level and the increasing stocking coefficient of downstream after price drops may support the price, and long - term investors can consider bottom - fishing [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - The price of lithium carbonate futures and spot decreased, and the warehouse receipt inventory decreased. The supply, demand, and inventory data of lithium carbonate in March were given, and the short - term and long - term market trends were analyzed [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The prices of various products in the lithium - battery industry chain on March 19 and March 18, 2026, were presented, including futures, lithium ore, lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, lithium hexafluorophosphate, precursors, cathode materials, cells, and batteries. The price changes were also provided [5]. 3.3 Chart Analysis 3.3.1 Ore Prices - Charts of the prices of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF), lithium mica (1.5% - 2.0%, 2.0% - 2.5%), and amblygonite (6% - 7%, 7% - 8%) were shown, with price trends from 2024 to 2026 [6][9]. 3.3.2 Lithium and Lithium Salt Prices - Charts of the prices of battery - grade metallic lithium, battery - grade lithium carbonate average price, industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price, battery - grade lithium hydroxide, industrial - grade lithium hydroxide, and lithium hexafluorophosphate were presented, showing price trends from 2024 to 2026 [12][14][18]. 3.3.3 Spreads - Charts of various spreads were provided, such as the spread between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, the spread between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, the spread between CIF Japan - South Korea battery - grade lithium hydroxide and SMM battery - grade lithium hydroxide, and the basis [18][20][24]. 3.3.4 Precursors & Cathode Materials - Charts of the prices of ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, lithium manganate, and cobaltate were shown, with price trends from 2024 to 2026 [26][28][30]. 3.3.5 Lithium Battery Prices - Charts of the prices of 523 square ternary cells, square lithium iron phosphate cells, cobaltate cells, and square lithium iron phosphate batteries were presented, showing price trends from 2024 to 2026 [32][36]. 3.3.6 Inventory - Charts of downstream inventory, smelter inventory, and inventory in other links were provided, showing the inventory trends from July 2025 to March 2026 [38][39][42]. 3.3.7 Production Costs - A chart of the production costs of lithium carbonate from different raw materials was shown, including the cash production profit of purchasing ternary pole piece black powder, lithium iron phosphate pole piece black powder, lithium mica concentrate, and lithium spodumene concentrate from 2024 to 2026 [43][44]. 3.4 Team Introduction - The members of the non - ferrous research team were introduced, including Zhan Dapeng, Wang Heng, and Zhu Xi, along with their educational backgrounds, positions, research directions, and professional achievements [47][48]. 3.5 Contact Information - The company's address, phone number, fax, customer service hotline, and postal code were provided [51].