华住集团-S：看好26年RP复苏和DH经营改善-20260320

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [7][5]. Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from the recovery of domestic business travel demand and improvements in its operating efficiency, leading to a positive year-on-year revenue per available room (RevPAR) growth in 2026 [1][5]. - The company has successfully transitioned to a light-asset model, resulting in significant growth in management and franchise (M&F) revenue, which increased by 21.0% year-on-year in Q4 2025 [2][5]. - The company has exceeded its store opening targets, with a total of 2,444 new stores opened in 2025, and plans to continue expanding its brand matrix to meet diverse consumer needs [4][5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2025, total revenue reached 6.525 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 8.3%, surpassing previous guidance [1]. - Adjusted EBITDA for Q4 was 2.194 billion RMB, exceeding Bloomberg consensus estimates [1]. - For the full year 2025, total revenue was 25.307 billion RMB, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 33.5%, up 4.9 percentage points year-on-year [1][5]. Management and Franchise Business - M&F revenue for Q4 2025 was 3.023 billion RMB, with a full-year growth of 23.0% [2]. - The M&F segment contributed 69% to the company's operating profit, reflecting a 5 percentage point increase year-on-year [2]. RevPAR and Operational Metrics - In Q4 2025, domestic RevPAR, average daily rate (ADR), and occupancy rate (OCC) were 226 RMB, 288 RMB, and 78.4%, respectively, with RevPAR showing a year-on-year increase of 2.0% [3]. - The company's overseas DH business also showed positive growth, with RevPAR reaching 87 Euros, a year-on-year increase of 7.0% [3]. Store Expansion and Shareholder Returns - By the end of 2025, the company had a total of 12,858 operating hotels globally, with 4Q 2025 seeing the opening of 406 new franchise stores [4]. - The company has committed to a shareholder return plan, distributing 650 million USD in cash dividends and 110 million USD in share buybacks in 2025 [4]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company projects a revenue growth of 2%-6% for 2026, with M&F revenue expected to grow by 12%-16% [5]. - The target price has been raised to 55.64 HKD, reflecting a 28x PE for 2026, indicating a premium valuation due to expected industry recovery [5].