GUOTAI HAITONG SECURITIES·2026-03-20 05:45Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for AIA Group Limited (1299) [2][3] Core Insights - The company reported a 8.8% decline in net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025, while the dividend per share increased by 10% year-on-year. The New Business Value (NBV) grew by 15% year-on-year. A new share buyback plan of $1.7 billion is set for 2026, indicating continuous improvement in shareholder returns [3][9] - The NBV growth was driven by a multi-channel strategy, with a 15% increase in NBV (fixed exchange rate) and a 17.1% increase (actual exchange rate) for 2025. The annualized new business increased by 9% (fixed exchange rate) and 10.2% (actual exchange rate) [9][10] - The company’s total revenue is projected to grow from $19.31 billion in 2024 to $33.77 billion in 2028, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 22.1% in 2028 [5][10] Financial Summary - For 2025, the total revenue is expected to be $21.62 billion, with a gross profit of $6.92 billion and a net profit of $6.23 billion. The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2026 is $0.75, increasing to $0.93 by 2028 [5][10] - The company’s price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is projected to decrease from 16.74 in 2024 to 11.31 in 2028, indicating a potential increase in valuation attractiveness over time [5][10] - The book value per share (PB) is expected to decline from 2.83 in 2024 to 2.24 in 2028, suggesting a strengthening of the company's financial position [5][10]