——2026年1-2月财政数据解读：支出靠前发力

Revenue Insights - In January-February 2026, the general public budget revenue reached 4.4 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 0.7%, below the target growth rate of 2.2%[3] - Central revenue decreased by 1.7% year-on-year, while local revenue increased by 2.6%, exceeding the target growth rate[3] - Tax revenue grew by 0.1% year-on-year, and non-tax revenue increased by 3.4%, both turning positive compared to December 2025[3] Expenditure Insights - National fiscal expenditure in January-February 2026 was 4.7 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.6%, slightly below the annual target growth rate of 4.4%[4] - The progress of public fiscal expenditure was 15.6%, higher than the same period last year and faster than the 5-year average of 14.8%[4] - Significant increases were noted in social security and employment expenditures, which rose by 16 percentage points[16] Fund Insights - Government fund income decreased by 16% year-on-year, significantly below the budget target of 0.6%, with land use rights income dropping by 25.2%[5] - Government fund expenditure grew by 16%, surpassing the target growth rate of 5.1%, primarily due to the issuance of new special bonds[5] - The progress of government fund expenditure reached 11.1%, marking the highest level since 2020 for the same period[5] Market Outlook - Fiscal spending is expected to support economic recovery, with a focus on improving living standards and stabilizing revenue through price recovery[2] - The overall fiscal deficit rate is projected to decrease, but the recovery of the Producer Price Index (PPI) may amplify policy effects, leading to moderate fiscal expansion that could boost total demand[2]