甲醇：地缘主导，盘面冲高回落

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The methanol market is expected to be mainly affected by the geopolitical situation next week. Multiple positive factors will drive the methanol market to fluctuate strongly, but attention should be paid to the Middle - East situation, the restart of import facilities and the follow - up price increase of downstream products, and be vigilant against the callback risk after the sentiment fades [6] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Review - The port methanol market has risen significantly this period, with the price in Jiangsu ranging from 2,790 to 3,180 yuan/ton and in Guangdong from 2,800 to 3,200 yuan/ton. The inland methanol market has mainly risen, with the price in the northern line of Ordos in the main production area ranging from 2,160 to 2,330 yuan/ton and the receiving price in Dongying ranging from 2,505 to 2,555 yuan/ton. The downstream enthusiasm is not high this cycle, the arrival volume remains low, and the port inventory has slightly decreased. The international situation panic and the expected contraction of supply have driven the price to rise strongly [3] Supply - The domestic methanol production this week has increased to 2,074,815 tons, an increase of 53,680 tons compared with last week; the device capacity utilization rate is 92.87%, a month - on - month increase of 2.65%. Inner Mongolia Baogang Qinghua has entered maintenance; Inner Mongolia Yigao has reduced production; Yanchang Zhongmei, Shenhua Xilaifeng, Inner Mongolia Junzheng, Yunnan Xianfeng and a set of devices in Hebei have resumed production. The inventory of inland methanol enterprises is 48.54 tons, and the port inventory continues to decrease, mainly due to the reduction of supply [4] Downstream Demand - The downstream demand has generally recovered, and the start - up performance of each product is differentiated. In terms of olefins, devices such as the second phase of Yulin Zhongmei have restarted, and the load of Tianjin Bohua has increased, so the industry start - up has risen. The capacity utilization rate of dimethyl ether this week is 5.49%, and the start - up of Xinxiang Xinlianxin has driven the utilization rate to recover. The load of the glacial acetic acid device is stable, and the capacity utilization rate remains the same. The start - up rate of methane chloride this cycle is 82.52%. Affected by the reduction of the load of Jiangsu Fuqiang device to 70%, the overall start - up has slightly declined. The start - up rate of formaldehyde this week is 42.43%. Many enterprises have restarted and increased the load, the supply has increased, and the utilization rate has increased compared with last week. Overall, the start - up of most downstream fields has increased, and the demand has improved compared with last week [5] Market Outlook - The methanol market next week is expected to be mainly affected by the geopolitical situation. On the cost side, the raw material cost of coal - to - methanol has been alleviated, and the profit space of enterprises has been repaired. However, the high - level operation of international natural gas prices and the Middle - East geopolitical conflict have further pushed up the global methanol cost, indirectly providing support for domestic methanol prices. On the supply side, the tight pattern continues. There are few maintenance plans for domestic methanol devices, and the devices under maintenance are gradually resuming. The start - up rate is expected to increase slightly. However, the Middle - East conflict has led to a contraction of import supply, and the continuous reduction of port inventory has further intensified the supply shortage. On the demand side, the marginal demand continues to recover. The start - up of major downstream fields has increased, and the rigid demand support for methanol has been continuously strengthened, but the shrinking profit of downstream enterprises may suppress the demand to a certain extent [6]