聚酯：冲突延续，市场波动加剧

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The current market is highly volatile, and the Middle East situation affects market sentiment. It is recommended to participate in the short - term, closely monitor the development of the Middle East situation, and pay attention to risks [4]. - PTA's de - stocking rhythm in March is delayed. Under the continued tense situation in the Middle East, the processing fee is poor. The market may be in a situation of cost increase, refinery load reduction, forced production cuts in the industrial chain, and a game between weak demand and high costs. The price center depends on the cost side and remains strong before the conflict eases [4]. - MEG's coal - chemical plants are under normal maintenance, integrated plants are reducing production, and imports may be significantly reduced. There is an expectation of improved supply - demand. From March to May, the de - stocking amplitude may increase, and the price center fluctuates with oil prices. It remains strong before the conflict improves, but the coal - based supply can relieve some pressure [4]. - Short - fiber and bottle - chip have good self - supply - demand and inventory conditions. In the Middle East situation, the polyester market is mainly worried about the risk of rising raw material costs. Hedge short - fiber and bottle - chip processing fees when prices are high [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs PX Raw Material - Due to the continuous impact of the Middle East situation, the prices of crude oil and polyester products continue to rise. PX suppliers plan to reduce the supply of PX contracts in March and April by 10% - 30%, and some up to over 50%. The short - and long - process benefits of PX have declined significantly, and there is an expectation of further supply reduction [6]. PTA - The actual impact of the US - Iran conflict on the polyester industry chain is gradually emerging. The开工 rate of polyester raw materials has decreased significantly, and if the raw materials continue to shrink, the load of PTA plants will be further reduced. For example, Yisheng New Materials reduced its load, and Fuhai Chuang and Fujian Baihong also adjusted their loads [7]. Downstream Pressure - In January - February 2026, the export of textile and clothing increased rapidly, and the retail sales also increased. However, the post - holiday downstream resumption of work is slow. The开机 rates of the texturing and weaving links are lower than last year. The polyester load is lower than last year. If the Middle East situation cannot be alleviated in the short term, raw material prices remain high, and downstream price transmission lags, terminal enterprises may face losses, and polyester and downstream enterprises may reduce their loads [8][11]. MEG - Affected by raw material supply, the开工 rate of domestic ethylene - cracking ethylene glycol enterprises has decreased. The overall load of MEG plants has dropped to 66.5%. The import of ethylene glycol from the Middle East will be significantly reduced in April. The cash flow of ethylene - based and naphtha - based MEG has declined, while coal - chemical and ethane - based MEG have cost advantages [9][10]. Short - fiber - The price of polyester short - fiber is mainly driven by cost. The export price is expected to rise due to increased raw material and logistics costs. The short - fiber spot processing fee has narrowed. The inventory has increased but the pressure is acceptable. Terminal orders are not well connected, and the willingness to purchase at high prices is low [14]. Bottle - chip - The price of polyester bottle - chip is mainly driven by raw materials. The export price is expected to rise. The spot circulation is tight, and the inventory of bottle - chip manufacturers has declined. The price fluctuates sharply, and it is necessary to hedge processing fees at high prices and pay attention to risks [15]. Important Data - On March 19, the PX - N spread was 211 US dollars/ton, and the PTA spot processing fee was 177 yuan/ton [22]. - On March 19, the ethylene glycol port inventory in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was 93.3 tons. At the end of February, the MEG factory inventory was 38.8 tons. In mid - March, the MEG raw material inventory of polyester factories was 14.8 days [28]. - In the domestic MEG production process, naphtha and externally purchased ethylene account for about 52%, syngas accounts for 36%, and ethane - based accounts for 6%. With the extension of the Strait blockade, the import of ethylene glycol in April - May will drop to a low level [33][39]. - In January - February 2026, the cumulative export of textile and clothing was 504.5 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 17.6%. The cumulative retail sales of textile, clothing, shoes, hats, and knitted products in China were 283.1 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 10.4% [54].