弘业纯碱周报：分析师范阿骄-20260320

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the document. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The main SA2605 contract of soda ash futures fluctuated narrowly and weakly today, rising and then falling, closing slightly lower. This week, it also trended downward with a lower center of gravity, showing a weak overall performance. Currently, the soda ash industry maintains a high operating rate with ample supply. Although the manufacturers' inventory has slightly decreased, it remains at a historical high, and the inventory reduction is slow. Coupled with the weak demand for downstream glass being transmitted to soda ash, the pattern of loose supply and demand remains unchanged, and the futures price is under pressure at a low level, mainly in a weak consolidation state [3]. - The soda ash futures market this week initially rose due to macro - sentiment and the general rise of commodities, then fell following the fluctuations of crude oil, showing a pattern of "rising and then falling, bottom - oscillating". The price center of the main contract actually oscillated in the range of 1250 - 1350 yuan/ton. The main contract dropped from around 1350 at the beginning of the week, breaking through the 1300 integer - level mark. The core logic is the dual suppression of high supply, high operating rate, and weak demand. Inventory continues to accumulate, and market sentiment is pessimistic. Without seeing large - scale maintenance/reduction in supply on the supply side or substantial improvement in demand on the demand side, the price will continue to be under pressure [4]. - The basic supply - demand pattern of soda ash remains loose. High inventory continues to suppress prices, and production is still increasing with overall supply remaining at a relatively high level. Although inventory has decreased, the overall inventory level is still relatively high, continuously suppressing prices. The demand for heavy soda ash in the downstream float glass industry is weak, further weakening the demand for heavy soda ash. The demand for light soda ash is relatively stable, but the overall demand is difficult to support the continuous upward movement of prices. After the Two Sessions, the expectation of real - estate and domestic - demand recovery has not yet been translated into actual demand boost. International geopolitical and energy - price fluctuations have an impact on market sentiment. Technically, the main contract SA2605 oscillates in the range of 1200 - 1250 yuan/ton, and today's price is close to the lower limit of the range, indicating weak market sentiment. Overall, the soda ash market will maintain a wide - range oscillation pattern in the short term. Fundamentally, it is weak, but the downward space is supported by costs, and the upward space is suppressed by high inventory. It is recommended that investors remain cautious and pay attention to the inventory reduction rhythm and changes in downstream demand [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Soda Ash Market Overview - This week, the soda ash futures market initially rose due to macro - sentiment and the general rise of commodities, then fell following the fluctuations of crude oil, showing a pattern of "rising and then falling, bottom - oscillating". The price center of the main contract oscillated in the range of 1250 - 1350 yuan/ton, dropping from around 1350 at the beginning of the week and breaking through the 1300 integer - level mark [4]. Supply - This week, the domestic soda ash production was 81.81 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.89 million tons, a growth rate of 1.11%. Among them, the production of light soda ash was 38.41 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.32 million tons, and the production of heavy soda ash was 43.40 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.57 million tons. In 2026, the new production capacity continues to be released and increased, and the pattern of loose supply remains unchanged. This week, the comprehensive capacity utilization rate of soda ash was 86.38%, compared with 87% last week, a week - on - week decrease of 0.62% [4]. Demand - This week, the shipment volume of Chinese soda ash enterprises was 88.71 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 7.85%; the overall shipment rate of soda ash was 109.63%, a week - on - week increase of 7.71 percentage points. The daily melting volume of float glass was 145,800 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1100 tons, and that of photovoltaic glass was 89,400 tons, remaining stable week - on - week. Next week, it is expected that 900 float glass production lines will be cold - repaired, and the photovoltaic glass production will remain stable [3]. Inventory - As of March 19, 2026, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.8538 billion tons. Among them, the inventory of light soda ash was 963.1 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 38.8 million tons, and the inventory of heavy soda ash was 890.7 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 10.9 million tons [3]. Profit - As of March 19, 2026, the theoretical profit of soda ash produced by the ammonia - soda process in China was - 25.30 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 0.90 yuan/ton. During the week, the price of sea salt on the raw - material side remained stable, and the price of anthracite continued to decline, with the cost side oscillating downward; the market price of soda ash remained stable, and affected by the strong sentiment, the price had no obvious fluctuations, so the profit of the ammonia - soda process was only slightly adjusted [3].