宏观预期负面压制有色板块大幅下挫

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Geopolitical conflicts and a hawkish Fed stance have led to a significant decline in the non - ferrous metals sector on March 19, with short - term market risk appetite difficult to repair, and the overall non - ferrous metals market in a state of shock and pressure [3][11] - Medium - term attention should be paid to the duration of the US - Iran war and oil price trends [11] - Aluminum prices are expected to continue a shock - strengthening trend, and nickel prices have strengthened bottom support, suggesting waiting for price stabilization before considering low - buying opportunities [11] Summary by Variety Copper - Short - term: Affected by geopolitical conflicts and a hawkish Fed, the market is pessimistic, and copper prices are expected to be weak. Long - term: The supply - demand tension remains unchanged, and low - buying opportunities can be considered after the price stabilizes [4] Alumina - Short - term: Cost support has increased, and the fundamentals have slightly improved. Medium - long - term: Guinea's policies and sea freight will affect prices, and the supply may increase, with the price showing a slight upward trend while fluctuating [5] Aluminum - Short - term: Pessimistic macro - sentiment, expected to maintain high - level shock. Medium - term: Supply - demand is expected to be tight, and the price center may move up. Low - buying opportunities can be considered [5] Aluminum Alloy - Driven by aluminum prices, with stable supply - demand and cost support, it is expected to follow aluminum prices, and low - buying opportunities can be considered [6] Zinc - Short - term: Pessimistic macro - situation, prices are weak. Medium - term: Global zinc ore increment is small, and overseas supply - demand is expected to be tight. After the price drops, downstream procurement demand improves, and spot procurement opportunities can be considered after price stabilization [7] Lead - Short - term: Scrap battery prices provide bottom support. Medium - term: Supply in China and overseas is in surplus, and prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level around the cost of recycled lead [7] Nickel - Supply pressure has slightly increased, and the bottom support is strengthening. It is expected to be shock - strengthening, but short - term fluctuations are large. Low - buying opportunities can be considered after price stabilization [7] Stainless Steel - Cost support exists, and production is expected to increase. It is expected to be shock - strengthening in the medium - term, but short - term fluctuations are large. Low - buying opportunities can be considered after price stabilization [8] Tin - Short - term: Pressured by macro - sentiment and supply recovery expectations. Medium - long - term: Supply risks exist, and demand is expected to increase, with prices expected to be in a shock - positive state [8] Industrial Silicon - Short - term: May fluctuate at a low valuation. Medium - long - term: In a loose supply - demand situation, prices are under pressure. Upstream can hedge at high prices, and investors can consider short - selling at high prices [9] Polysilicon - Short - term: Pressured by market sentiment and high inventory, prices may continue to compete around the cost area. Medium - term: "Anti - involution" policies need to be monitored, and the supply - demand situation is expected to improve, with prices in a wide - range shock pattern. The anti - arbitrage strategy between the 05 contract and far - month contracts can be continued [10] Lithium Carbonate - Short - term: Trading on macro - issues and weak demand expectations, prices are under shock pressure. Medium - long - term: Supply problems may drive prices up after May [10]