Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2026-03-20 08:43Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of the agricultural meteorological conditions for various crops, including soybeans, rapeseed, palm oil, corn, cotton, apples, dates, sugarcane, beets, peanuts, wheat, and rice. It assesses the current growth stages, precipitation, and temperature conditions in different regions, and analyzes the potential impacts on crop production [6][7]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Key Meteorological Conditions - ENSO forecast: The probability of La Nina is 96% from February to April, 90% from March to May, and 65% from April to June [6]. - Domestic: South China's early rice is in the sowing and seedling - raising stage, and some have entered the three - leaf stage; Hainan's southern part is in the jointing stage. Southwest China's single - season rice, spring corn, and potatoes are in the sowing and emergence stage. Gansu and Ningxia's spring wheat is in the sowing and emergence stage. In Ningxia, the sowing progress of spring wheat is 71.48%, in Chongqing, the rice seedling - raising progress is 36.2%, and the spring corn sowing progress is 6.5%. Jianghuai, Jianghan, most of the Jiangnan region, Sichuan Basin, Chongqing, and Guizhou have frequent rainy weather, which is unfavorable for rapeseed flowering and pod - setting and spring plowing and sowing, with a high risk of waterlogging in some low - lying areas [7]. - International: US soybeans have not started sowing. Brazil is in the soybean harvesting period, and Argentina is in the soybean growing period. As of March 14, Brazil's soybean harvesting rate is 59.2%, compared with 50.6% last week, 69.8% in the same period last year, and a five - year average of 58.4%. In the next 15 days, the southern part of the central - western soybean - producing area in Brazil will have less rainfall than normal, while the central and northern parts will have more rainfall; the temperature will be normal or higher than normal, which is conducive to crop harvesting. In the next 15 days, most areas in Argentina's soybean - producing areas will have more rainfall than normal, and the temperature will be normal or higher than normal, which is beneficial for improving soil moisture. European rapeseed is in the growing period. In the next 15 days, most of the key producing areas in Europe will have less rainfall than normal, and the temperature will be normal or higher than normal. Indonesia and Malaysia have rainfall, but less than normal, with limited impact on palm fruit picking [7]. 2. Meteorological Conditions in Each Crop - Producing Area Soybeans - Chinese domestic: Northeast China (including Inner Mongolia) accounts for over 60% of the total soybean output, and the Huanghuaihai region accounts for over 15%. Both regions have not started sowing [11][16]. - US: The main soybean - producing areas are concentrated in the central part, including Iowa, Illinois, Minnesota, Nebraska, Indiana, etc. New - season soybeans usually start to be planted in mid - April. The 2025/26 US soybean harvest is over. The USDA supply - demand report shows that the 2025/26 US soybean output is 115.75 million tons, lower than the previous year's 119.05 million tons. In the next 6 - 10 days, the temperature in the US soybean - producing areas will be higher than normal, and the rainfall will be lower than normal. As of September 23, about 37% (+1) of the soybean - producing areas are in a drought state, with an increase in the severely - drought - affected area compared to last week and last year [26][29][35]. - Brazil: The main soybean - producing areas are concentrated in the central - western part, including Mato Grosso (28%), Paraná (13%), Rio Grande do Sul (11%), Goiás (11%), and Mato Grosso do Sul (9%). As of March 14, the soybean harvesting rate is 59.2%. The USDA report estimates the 2025/26 Brazilian soybean output to be 180 million tons. In the next 15 days, the southern part of the central - western soybean - producing area will have less rainfall than normal, while the central and northern parts will have more rainfall; the temperature will be normal or higher than normal, which is conducive to crop harvesting [39][40][47]. - Argentina: The main soybean - producing areas are concentrated in the central part, including Buenos Aires (31%), Córdoba (28%), Santa Fe (19%), and Santiago del Estero (9%), accounting for about 12% of the world's output. The soybeans are in the growing period. The USDA expects the 2025/26 output to be 48.5 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.11%. In the next 15 days, most areas in the soybean - producing areas will have more rainfall than normal, and the temperature will be normal or higher than normal, which is beneficial for improving soil moisture [51][52][58]. Rapeseed - Chinese domestic: Northwest and North China plant spring rapeseed, accounting for about 10% of the total output, and the harvest is over. The Yangtze River中下游 region and Southwest China plant winter rapeseed, accounting for about 50% and over 35% of the total output respectively, and are in the full - bloom stage. Some areas in these two regions have more rainfall, which affects rapeseed flowering and pod - setting. The temperature conditions are suitable [63][68][73]. - Canada: Canada is the world's largest rapeseed producer, accounting for about 22% of the global output. Rapeseed is concentrated in the Prairie Provinces (Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba), and the harvest is over. Statistics Canada estimates that the rapeseed sown area in 2025 will be 21.6 million acres, a 1.7% decrease from 2024. In the next 15 days, the key rapeseed - producing areas in the three provinces will have less rainfall than normal, and the temperature will be higher than normal, which is unfavorable for soil moisture [77][82]. - EU: The EU is the world's second - largest rapeseed producer, accounting for about 20% of the global output. The rapeseed - growing areas are mainly distributed in France (21%), Germany (21%), Poland (18%), Romania (6%), etc. Rapeseed is in the growing period. The consulting firm Strategic Grains estimates that the 2025/26 rapeseed output of the 27 EU countries will be 19 million tons, an increase of 2.2 million tons compared to the 2024/25 period. In the next 15 days, most of the key producing areas in Europe will have less rainfall than normal, and the temperature will be normal or higher than normal [86][87][93]. Palm Oil - Indonesia: The main palm - oil - producing areas are Sumatra and Kalimantan. - Malaysia: The main palm - oil - producing areas are concentrated in Sarawak, Sabah, Pahang, Johor, and Perak, with Sabah and Sarawak accounting for over 45% of the total output. Indonesia and Malaysia have rainfall, but less than normal, with limited impact on palm fruit picking. The probability of La Nina is 96% from February to April, 90% from March to May, and 65% from April to June [97][100][106]. Corn - Northeast China (including Inner Mongolia) grows spring corn, accounting for over 40% of the total output, and the harvest is over. The Huanghuaihai region grows summer corn, accounting for over 30% of the total output, with spring corn about to be sown and summer corn harvest over. In Southwest China, corn accounts for about 10% of the total output, and spring corn is in the sowing and emergence stage. Some areas in Southwest China have more rainfall, which is unfavorable for spring plowing and sowing. The temperature conditions are suitable [117][118][123]. Cotton - Xinjiang accounts for about 90% of the total cotton output, and the harvest is over. The Huanghuaihai region accounts for about 6% of the total output, and the harvest is also over. The precipitation and temperature conditions are suitable [132][133][137]. Apples - The Bohai Bay region (Shandong, Liaoning, Hebei, Beijing, Tianjin) accounts for about 33% of the total apple output, and the apples are in the budding stage. The Northwest Loess Plateau region (Weibei area in Shaanxi, southern and central Shanxi, Sanmenxia area in Henan, eastern Gansu, and Xinjiang) accounts for about 60% of the total output, and the apples are also in the budding stage. The precipitation and temperature conditions are suitable [146][147][152]. Dates - Xinjiang accounts for about 50% of the total date output, and the harvest is over. The Loess Plateau region (Shanxi, Shaanxi) and the Huanghuaihai region (Shandong, Hebei, Henan, Jiangsu, Anhui) each account for over 20% of the total output, and the harvest is over. The precipitation and temperature conditions are suitable [161][165][167]. Sugarcane - Guangxi, Yunnan, and Guangdong account for 68.6%, 14.8%, and 12.6% of the total sugarcane output respectively, and are in the sowing stage. The precipitation and temperature conditions are suitable [173][177][181]. Beets - Xinjiang accounts for about 39% of the total beet output, and most are spring - sown, with the harvest over. North China accounts for about 57% of the total output, and most are also spring - sown, with the harvest over. The precipitation and temperature conditions are suitable [186][191][195]. Peanuts - Northeast China accounts for about 10% of the total peanut output, and the harvest is over. The Huanghuaihai region accounts for over 60% of the total output, with both spring and summer peanuts' harvest over. The South China region accounts for over 10% of the total output, and spring peanuts are in the sowing stage. The precipitation and temperature conditions are suitable [200][201][207]. Wheat - Northwest China accounts for over 10% of the total wheat output, mainly growing spring wheat, which is in the over - wintering to standing - up stage. The Huanghuaihai region accounts for over 80% of the total output, mainly growing winter wheat, which is in the standing - up to jointing stage. The precipitation and temperature conditions are suitable [216][221][225]. Rice - Northeast China grows japonica rice, with one crop a year, accounting for about 20% of the total output, and the single - season rice harvest is over. The Yangtze River中下游 region has both single - and double - cropping rice, accounting for over 40% of the total output, with early rice in the sowing stage, single - season rice in the sowing and emergence stage, and late rice harvest over. Southwest China mainly has single - season double - cropping rice, with indica and japonica rice coexisting, accounting for about 14% of the total output, and single - season rice is in the sowing and emergence stage. South China grows double - cropping indica rice, with multiple crops a year, accounting for about 12.5% of the total output, with early rice in the sowing stage and late rice harvest over. The precipitation and temperature conditions are suitable [230][234][236].