生猪市场周报：供需格局延续，压制生猪走势-20260320

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the live hog price broke through the support level and declined. The main contract 2605 dropped by 8.34% on a weekly basis. The supply is under pressure as the breeding side is selling normally and the sales of some large hogs are increasing. Attention should be paid to whether large - scale farms will reduce the supply at the end of the month to relieve the supply pressure. The slaughtering enterprises' operating rate is rising but has not returned to the pre - holiday level. The terminal consumption is still sluggish, and the slow sales force the products into storage, accelerating the increase in frozen product storage capacity. Overall, the supply is high and the demand lacks positive factors. The fundamentals are still bearish. The average spot price of live hogs has reached a low of 10 yuan/kg and will continue to bottom out. The futures market remains weak, but the impact of capital flow on the market should be noted [7][11] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - Market Review: This week, the live hog price broke through the support level and declined. The main contract 2605 dropped by 8.34% on a weekly basis [7][11] - Market Outlook: The breeding side is selling normally, and the sales of some large hogs are increasing, resulting in supply pressure. Attention should be paid to whether large - scale farms will reduce the supply at the end of the month to relieve the supply pressure. The slaughtering enterprises' operating rate is rising but has not returned to the pre - holiday level. The terminal consumption is still sluggish, and the slow sales force the products into storage, accelerating the increase in frozen product storage capacity. The supply is high and the demand lacks positive factors. The fundamentals are still bearish. The average spot price of live hogs has reached a low of 10 yuan/kg and will continue to bottom out. The futures market remains weak, but the impact of capital flow on the market should be noted [7] 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets 3.2.1 Futures Market - Price Movement: This week, the live hog futures price broke through the support level and declined. The main contract 2605 dropped by 8.34% on a weekly basis [7][11] - Net Position and Warehouse Receipts: As of March 20, the net short position of the top 20 holders in live hog futures was 64,491 lots, an increase of 5,199 lots from last week. The number of live hog futures warehouse receipts was 1,051, a decrease of 82 from the previous week [17] - Contract Spreads: The spread between lh2605 and lh2607 contracts was - 1060, and the spread between lh2605 and lh2609 contracts was - 2355 [21] 3.2.2 Spot Market - Base Difference: This week, the base difference of the live hog May contract was - 220 yuan/ton, and the base difference of the July contract was - 1280 yuan/ton [28] - Spot Price: This week, the average national live hog market price was 10.20 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.06 yuan/kg from last week. The average price of 15 - kg weaned piglets was 26.62 yuan/kg, a decrease of 1 yuan/kg from last week [37] - Pork and Sow Prices: On March 20, the national pork market price was 15.98 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.16 yuan/kg from the previous week. The average market price of binary sows was 32.45 yuan/kg, the same as the previous week [44] - Pig - to - Grain Ratio: As of the week ending February 11, 2026, the pig - to - grain ratio was 5.5, a decrease of 0.18 from the previous week [48] 3.3 Industry Situation 3.3.1 Upstream - Sow Inventory: In December 2025, the official inventory of breeding sows was 39.61 million. According to institutional data, the inventory in February decreased slightly month - on - month. The inventory of 123 large - scale farms in February was 5.0204 million, a month - on - month decrease of 0.01% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.48%. The inventory of 85 small and medium - sized farms in February was 166,860, a month - on - month decrease of 0.11% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.12% [50][54] - Live Hog Inventory: At the end of the fourth quarter of 2025, the live hog inventory was 429.67 million, a month - on - month decrease of 1.6% and a year - on - year increase of 0.5%. According to institutional data, in February, the inventory of 123 large - scale farms was 37.3205 million, a month - on - month increase of 1.79% and a year - on - year increase of 5.57%. The inventory of 85 small and medium - sized farms in February was 1.5767 million, a month - on - month increase of 1.36% and a year - on - year increase of 11.89% [58] - Slaughter Volume and Average Weight: According to institutional data, in February, the slaughter volume of 123 large - scale farms was 9.9223 million, a month - on - month decrease of 12.95% and a year - on - year increase of 12.12%. The slaughter volume of 85 small and medium - sized farms in February was 559,600, a month - on - month increase of 2.85% and a year - on - year increase of 23.07%. The average slaughter weight of national ternary live hogs this week was 123.28 kg, an increase of 0.11 kg from last week [62] 3.3.2 Industry Profit - Live Hog and Poultry Breeding Profit: As of March 20, the breeding profit of purchased piglets was - 141.48 yuan/head, a decrease of 23.3 yuan/head; the breeding profit of self - bred and self - raised live hogs was - 297.68 yuan/head, a decrease of 14.53 yuan/head. The egg - laying hen breeding profit was - 0.32 yuan/hen, a week - on - week increase of 0.01 yuan/hen; the 817 meat - hybrid chicken breeding profit was - 0.62 yuan/chicken, a week - on - week decrease of 0.3 yuan/chicken [65] 3.3.3 Domestic Market - Pork Import: In January and February 2026, the cumulative pork import was 120,000 tons, with a monthly average of 60,000 tons. In February, the pork import was 50,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 37.5%; the import from January to February was 120,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 33.33% [68][72] 3.3.4 Substitute Products - White - Striped Chicken and Fat - Standard Price Difference: As of the week ending March 20, the white - striped chicken price was 13.7 yuan/kg, the same as last week. The average national standard - fat pig price difference was - 0.65 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.09 yuan/kg from last week [76] 3.3.5 Feed - Feed Price: As of March 20, the spot price of soybean meal was 3,405.43 yuan/ton, a decrease of 33.43 yuan/ton from the previous week. The spot price of corn was 2,454.61 yuan/ton, an increase of 7.75 yuan/ton from the previous week [83] - Feed Index and Price: As of March 20, the closing price of the Dalian Commodity Exchange live hog feed cost index was 963.72; the average price of finishing pig compound feed was 3.36 yuan/kg [87] - Feed Output: From January to February 2026, the feed output was 51.098 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.3%. In February, the sales of piglet feed decreased by 3.84% month - on - month and 2.77% year - on - year [91] 3.3.6 CPI - As of February 2026, China's CPI increased by 1.3% year - on - year [96] 3.3.7 Downstream - Slaughtering Enterprises: In the 12th week of 2026, the operating rate of slaughtering enterprises was 30.45%, an increase of 1.92 percentage points from last week and 4.30 percentage points from the same period last year. The fresh - sales rate of key domestic slaughtering enterprises was 80.17%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.27% and a year - on - year decrease of 9.65%; the frozen product storage capacity rate was 18.72%, an increase of 0.88% from last week and 1.70% from the same period last year [100] - Slaughter Volume and Catering Consumption: As of January 2026, the slaughter volume of designated live hog slaughtering enterprises was 44.04 million, a month - on - month increase of 9.96% and a 15.41% increase from the previous month. From January to February 2026, the national catering revenue was 1.0264 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase [105] 3.3.8 Live Hog Stocks - Stocks of Muyuan and Wens are presented, but no specific analysis is provided [107]