合成橡胶市场周报-20260320

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - Due to the uncertainty of the US-Iran geopolitical conflict, short - term synthetic rubber futures prices are expected to be highly volatile, and it is recommended to wait and see [7] - The ongoing military conflict in the Middle East has restricted the short - term supply of crude oil and downstream energy - chemical products. High production costs, tight raw material supply, and reduced device loads have led to a decline in the inventory of production enterprises, and short - term inventory may further decrease. On the demand side, the operating rate of domestic tire enterprises has increased slightly, and it is expected to remain high at the end of the quarter [8] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Week - to - Week Summary - Strategy Recommendation: Wait and see due to the uncertainty of the US - Iran geopolitical conflict [7] - Market Review: Shandong market butadiene rubber prices fluctuated at a high level this week, with spot prices ranging from 15,000 - 15,800 yuan/ton. The production cost remained high. As of March 19, 2026, the ex - factory price of Sinopec's BR9000 was 15,800 yuan/ton, and that of PetroChina's sales companies was 15,800 - 15,900 yuan/ton [8] - Market Outlook: Geopolitical situations in the Middle East have affected crude oil and shipping. Tight raw material supply and high prices have led to losses for enterprises. Some device loads have decreased or are about to be overhauled, resulting in tight supply of available goods and a decline in inventory. The operating rate of tire enterprises has increased slightly and is expected to remain high [8] 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - Futures Market - The price of the synthetic rubber futures main contract rose by 1.91% this week [12] - As of March 20, the 5 - 6 spread of butadiene rubber was 255 [19] - As of March 20, the butadiene rubber warehouse receipt was 22,960 tons, an increase of 830 tons from last week [22] - Spot Market - As of March 19, the price of Qilu Petrochemical's BR9000 in the Shandong market was 15,400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton from last week [26] - As of March 19, the butadiene rubber basis was - 140 yuan/ton, an increase of 85 yuan/ton from last week [26] 3.3. Industry Situation - Upstream - As of March 19, the CFR middle - price of naphtha in Japan was 1,160.5 US dollars/ton, an increase of 100.75 US dollars/ton from last week. The CIF middle - price of Northeast Asian ethylene was 1,350 US dollars/ton, an increase of 200 US dollars/ton from last week [29] - As of March 13, the weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene was 72.7%, a decrease of 3.58% from last week. As of March 20, the butadiene port inventory was 27,600 tons, a decrease of 3,400 tons from last week [32] - Industry Production - In February 2026, the production of butadiene rubber was 140,400 tons, a decrease of 9,500 tons from last month, a month - on - month decrease of 6.36% and a year - on - year increase of 25.64%. As of March 19, the domestic weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene rubber was 65.58%, a decrease of 14.4% from last week [35] - As of March 19, the domestic production profit of butadiene rubber was - 2,500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 204 yuan/ton from last week [38] - As of March 20, the domestic social inventory of butadiene rubber was 42,610 tons, a decrease of 1,820 tons from last week. The manufacturer's inventory was 34,000 tons, a decrease of 1,350 tons from last week, and the trader's inventory was 8,610 tons, a decrease of 470 tons from last week [42] - Downstream - As of March 19, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 79.32%, a month - on - month increase of 0.59 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 0.05 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.21%, a month - on - month increase of 0.41 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 3.31 percentage points [45] - In February 2026, China's tire exports were 631,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.49% and a year - on - year increase of 22.34%. The cumulative exports from January to February were 1,336,900 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 11.57% [48]