集运指数（欧线）期货周报-20260320

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the futures price of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) declined slightly. The main contract EC2604 fell 3.78%, and the far - month contracts had declines ranging from - 6% to - 2%. The latest SCFIS European Line settlement freight rate index was 1556.49, up 11.03 points from last week, a 0.7% increase. Although the geopolitical situation has deteriorated, the detour expectation has been gradually realized. Coupled with the unchanged fundamental pattern of the shipping industry and the limited upward space in March and April, it is difficult for shipping companies to implement price increases. The support from news is the main logic. Investors are advised to be cautious, pay attention to operation rhythm and risk control, and track airline quotes, cargo volume data, and the sustainability of the US - Iran conflict and the progress of the subsequent Iranian regime transition [6][35] 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1. Market Review - The main contract price of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) futures this week saw a retracement of gains after the detour expectation through the Strait of Hormuz was realized. The trading volume and open interest of the EC2604 contract declined. The week - on - week changes of different contracts were as follows: EC2604 fell 3.78% (- 76.30), EC2605 fell 2.78% (- 62.60), EC2606 fell 1.16% (- 28.40), EC2607 rose 2.20% (55.40), EC2608 fell 0.92% (- 22.10), EC2609 fell 0.73% (- 12.80), EC2610 fell 1.78% (- 28.40), and EC2612 fell 5.98% (- 111.80). The SCFIS index rose 0.7% (11.03) to 1556.49 [9][11][13] 3.2. News Review and Analysis - US President Trump said he was "unaware" of Israel's attacks on Iranian oil and gas facilities and told Israel not to attack Iranian energy facilities. The US Treasury Secretary said the US might lift sanctions on Iranian oil at sea in the coming days and release strategic oil reserves again. The White House said the US would not impose an oil export ban, which is bearish for the market. The Fed raised inflation and economic growth expectations, and Fed Chairman Powell denied that the US economy was in stagflation, emphasizing that the policy stance was appropriate and that interest rate cuts required sustained progress in inflation. The probability of a future interest rate hike was mentioned, which is neutral for the market. Middle - East energy facilities were at a sharply increased risk of being attacked. Iran's largest gas field and some petrochemical facilities were attacked. Iran announced it would strike US - related oil facilities and listed the energy facilities of Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar as legitimate targets, which is slightly bullish for the market. China and the US held economic and trade consultations in Paris, reaching some new consensuses and agreeing to study the establishment of a cooperation mechanism to promote bilateral trade and investment. China will take necessary measures to safeguard its legitimate rights and interests, which is neutral for the market [16] 3.3. Weekly Market Data - The basis and spread of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) futures contracts contracted this week. The export container freight rate index was lifted by the geopolitical situation. Global container shipping capacity continued to grow, and the European - line capacity fluctuated and rebounded. The BDI and BPI dropped rapidly this week, and the freight rate fluctuated slightly. The charter price of Capesize ships dropped significantly, and the spread between the offshore and on - shore RMB against the US dollar contracted rapidly [22][23][27] 3.4. Market Outlook and Strategy - The futures price of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) declined slightly this week. The main contract EC2604 fell 3.78%, and the far - month contracts had declines ranging from - 6% to - 2%. The latest SCFIS European Line settlement freight rate index was 1556.49, up 11.03 points from last week, a 0.7% increase. Although the US - Israel - Iran conflict continued to escalate, the market's expectation of detouring through the Strait of Hormuz had been fully realized, and the freight rate still had some support. The shipping company quotes in early April mostly remained unchanged, with an average of about $2370 per large container, equivalent to 1720 points of the underlying index, remaining stable. The euro - zone unemployment rate in January unexpectedly dropped to 6.1%, a record low, and inflation accelerated unexpectedly, with the CPI in February rising 1.9% year - on - year, higher than market expectations. The ECB kept interest rates unchanged as expected, but concerns about imported inflation led to an increase in the expectation of a tighter ECB policy. The market fully priced in the ECB's resumption of interest rate hikes in July. Investors are advised to be cautious, pay attention to operation rhythm and risk control, and track airline quotes, cargo volume data, and the sustainability of the US - Iran conflict and the progress of the subsequent Iranian regime transition [6][35]