白糖周报:郑糖延续偏强走势,关注国际局势-20260320
Guo Xin Qi Huo·2026-03-20 09:03
  1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Domestically, in the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season's mid - late stage, the domestic spot market supply is relatively sufficient, but the strengthening of the outer market raises the cost of imported sugar, and the domestic market follows the outer market to fluctuate and strengthen. In the short term, Zhengzhou sugar's trend depends on the outer - market raw sugar. Potential risks include a possible decline in international crude oil prices and a correction in Brazil's production expectations, along with the domestic off - season for sugar consumption [56]. - Internationally, ICE raw sugar futures have strengthened significantly, breaking through the recent trading range. This is due to the tightening of fundamental supply - demand and multiple macro - factors. The global sugar supply - demand pattern is turning tighter, with many institutions reducing the expected surplus for the 2025/26 season. The production in India and Thailand in the Northern Hemisphere is lower than expected, and Brazil's new season is about to start with an expected lower sugar - making ratio [56]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Sugar Market Analysis 3.1.1 Futures Price Trends - Zhengzhou sugar futures fluctuated, with a weekly decline of 0.29%. ICE sugar futures strengthened, with a weekly increase of 7.1% [10]. 3.1.2 Spot Price and Basis Trends - Not elaborated in the given text, only data sources are mentioned [11][13] 3.1.3 Sales in Guangxi and Yunnan - Not elaborated in the given text, only data sources are mentioned [17][15] 3.1.4 Sugar Import Situation - From January to February, imports were 520,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 440,000 tons. Based on the ICE sugar May contract price of 15 cents per pound, the in - quota import cost from Brazil is 4,213 yuan per ton, and the out - of - quota cost is 5,343 yuan per ton; for Thailand, the in - quota cost is 4,149 yuan per ton, and the out - of - quota cost is 5,260 yuan per ton [21]. 3.1.5 Domestic Industrial Inventory - In the 2025/26 season, the industrial inventory in January was about 4.19 million tons, an increase of 432,200 tons compared to the same period last year [24]. 3.1.6 Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange Warehouse Receipts and Valid Forecasts - This week, the total of Zhengzhou sugar warehouse receipts and forecasts was 16,342, a decrease of 684 from the previous week. The number of warehouse receipts was 16,342, and the valid forecast was 0 [32]. 3.1.7 Brazil's Production Progress - In the second half of January, the cumulative crushing volume was 602 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.16%, and the sugar production was 40.24 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.86% [36]. 3.1.8 Brazil's Bi - weekly Sugar - Making Ratio - The cumulative sugar - making ratio of sugarcane in the central - southern part of Brazil was 50.74%, compared to 48.14% in the same period last year [41]. 3.1.9 Brazil's Monthly Sugar Exports - In February, Brazil's sugar export volume was 2.2297 million tons, a 22% increase compared to the same period last year [46]. 3.1.10 International Main - Producing Area Weather Conditions - Brazil's main producing areas have abundant rainfall, which is beneficial to sugarcane growth. India has slightly more precipitation, which may affect sugarcane crushing [52][53] 3.2 Market Outlook - Domestically, the market follows the outer - market trend, and there are potential risks such as a decline in international crude oil prices and a correction in Brazil's production expectations. It is recommended not to chase high prices. - Internationally, the ICE raw sugar futures have strengthened due to tightening supply - demand and multiple factors, with the global sugar supply - demand pattern turning tighter [56]
白糖周报:郑糖延续偏强走势,关注国际局势-20260320 - Reportify