国信期货生猪周报：供压缓解偏慢，期货暴力挤升水-20260320

Report Overview - Report Name: "Supply Pressure Eases Slowly, Futures Violently Squeeze Premium - Guoxin Futures Live Pig Weekly Report" - Date: March 20, 2026 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the past week, the live pig spot market fluctuated weakly, with the national average price of standard pigs falling below 10 yuan, but the decline rate slowed down. The futures market fell sharply, with the main lh2605 contract dropping 8.34% to close at 10,215 yuan/ton. The futures were weaker than the spot, strengthening the basis, but it remained in a negative basis state. The large futures decline was mainly due to the high premium on the futures and the slow easing of spot supply pressure, leading to a reshaping of the futures valuation [7]. - Recently, the slaughter volume has increased rapidly, but the improvement in fresh product sales is limited, and the frozen product inventory has risen continuously, indicating that there is some warehousing behavior at the slaughter end. Second - round fattening replenishment has appeared sporadically, and the utilization rate of pigsties has increased, but the average slaughter weight remains high, suggesting that the de - stocking of live inventories is still slow. Given the current low absolute price, there is no economic rationality for hoarding, and passive hoarding in the industry is unsustainable. In the later stage, the risk of concentrated selling in the industry under increasing capital pressure needs to be guarded against [7]. - In the long term, the off - season performance of piglet prices, continuous losses in fattening profits, and falling futures prices will further affect the enthusiasm for replenishment. Piglet profits will fall into the loss range again, which may force the acceleration of capacity reduction. Policy - wise, relevant national departments held an industry meeting on Thursday, re - clarifying the direction of capacity regulation [7]. - In general, before the average weight effectively decreases, avoid bottom - fishing thinking for near - term contracts, and mainly adopt the idea of short - selling on rebounds or selling out - of - the - money call options. For far - term contracts, patiently wait for the right - side long - allocation opportunity after the acceleration of capacity reduction. Medium - term contracts are easily affected by spot pressure and long - term capacity reduction trading, so both long and short positions should pay attention to the safety margin of entry [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 1. Weekly Analysis and Outlook - Spot market: The national average price of standard pigs fell below 10 yuan, and the decline rate slowed down. Futures market: The main lh2605 contract dropped 8.34% to 10,215 yuan/ton. The futures were weaker than the spot, and the basis strengthened but remained negative. The large futures decline was due to high premium and slow supply pressure easing [7]. - Fundamental situation: Slaughter volume increased rapidly, fresh product sales improved little, and frozen product inventory rose. Second - round fattening replenishment appeared sporadically, pigsty utilization rate increased, but average slaughter weight was high, and live inventory de - stocking was slow. Passive hoarding was unsustainable, and there was a risk of concentrated selling [7]. - Long - term trend: Piglet prices were weak in the peak season, fattening profits were in continuous loss, and futures prices fell, affecting replenishment enthusiasm. Piglet profits may enter the loss range again, forcing capacity reduction [7]. - Policy: National departments held a meeting to clarify capacity regulation [7]. - Investment strategy: Near - term contracts: Avoid bottom - fishing, short - sell on rebounds or sell out - of - the - money call options. Far - term contracts: Wait for the right - side long - allocation opportunity after capacity reduction. Medium - term contracts: Pay attention to the safety margin of entry [7]. 64. Central Reserve Frozen Pork Operations - Price over - decline: At the national level, do not start temporary reserve purchases when the third - level over - decline warning is issued; start as appropriate when the second - level warning is issued; start when the first - level warning is issued. Local conditions refer to the national practice [65]. - Price over - rise: In the case of market cyclical fluctuations, start reserve releases when the second - level over - rise warning is issued; increase the release intensity when the first - level warning is issued. In special situations such as major animal epidemic risks, tolerate a higher price increase. After the first - level warning is issued, organize releases mainly during key periods. Provinces can determine their own reserve release start conditions, which should not be higher than the central conditions [65].