思摩尔国际（06969）：雾化修复+HNB放量驱动收入快增

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained at "Buy" with a target price of HKD 16.00 [1] Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of RMB 14.256 billion in 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 20.8%, with adjusted profit reaching RMB 1.53 billion, up 1.3% year-on-year. The growth was driven by the recovery of the aerosol business in Europe and the U.S., as well as the ramp-up of the HNB (Heated Not Burned) business [1][2] - The report anticipates continued recovery in the aerosol business and further progress in the HNB sector, supported by a multi-client and multi-product strategy [1][3] Summary by Sections Aerosol Business - The ToB (Business to Business) segment generated revenue of RMB 10.058 billion in 2025, a 10.5% increase year-on-year, benefiting from regulatory enforcement in Europe and the U.S. The revenue breakdown includes RMB 5.77 billion from Europe, RMB 4.07 billion from the U.S., and RMB 210 million from mainland China [2] - The ToC (Business to Consumer) segment achieved revenue of RMB 2.911 billion, up 17.6% year-on-year, with significant growth in overseas markets driven by the VAPORESSO brand [2] HNB Business - The HNB segment reported revenue of RMB 1.29 billion, a staggering increase of 475.4% year-on-year, driven by the launch of high-end products in key markets [3] - The company plans to expand the Glo Hilo product line into more markets and accelerate the commercialization of other HNB technology platforms in 2026 [3] Financial Performance - The gross margin for 2025 was 34.1%, down 3.3 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to changes in business structure and rising raw material costs. The total expense ratio decreased to 23.0% in the second half of 2025 [4] - Adjusted net profit margin for 2025 was 10.7%, reflecting a decline of 2.1 percentage points year-on-year [4] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The adjusted net profit forecasts for 2026, 2027, and 2028 are RMB 1.652 billion, RMB 2.253 billion, and RMB 2.841 billion, respectively. The adjusted EPS for these years is projected to be RMB 0.27, RMB 0.36, and RMB 0.46 [5] - The company is assigned a target PE of 40 times for 2027, leading to a target price of HKD 16.00, based on the expected growth in the HNB and aerosol businesses [5]