贵金属市场周报：降息预期延续收敛，金银走势持续承压-20260320

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The precious metals market weakened significantly this week, with high - volatility trends continuing under the influence of macro - expectations and geopolitical situations. The price movement was mainly affected by the escalation of the US - Iran geopolitical situation, inflation rebound expectations driven by rising oil prices, and the Fed's hawkish stance [7]. - In the short term, the precious metals market will continue to face a tug - of - war among the risk - aversion sentiment under the US - Iran situation, the tenacity of inflation expectations, and potential economic stagflation risks. If the geopolitical conflict persists and oil prices remain high, inflation expectations may strengthen, suppressing the rebound space of gold and silver. However, if more data confirm the slowdown of the US economy, the market's pricing of stagflation risks may increase, boosting the performance of precious metals [7]. - In the long - term, the long - term bullish logic of precious metals has not fundamentally reversed due to continuous gold purchases by global central banks, the reshaping of the currency system's credit, and the tight supply of silver. In the short term, the prices of gold and silver are expected to oscillate to digest the previous over - heated gains [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Weekly Key Points Summary - Market Review: This week, the precious metals market weakened significantly. The US - Iran situation, inflation expectations, and the Fed's stance affected the market. The US - Iran tension at the beginning of the week pushed up the US dollar and US bond yields, pressuring gold and silver prices. Although the situation eased later, the upward resistance remained strong. The US economic data showed co - existence of economic slowdown and inflation resilience, and the Fed's stance compressed the interest - rate cut expectations, leading to a significant decline in gold and silver prices on Thursday night [7]. - Market Outlook: In the short term, the precious metals market will be influenced by multiple factors. If the geopolitical conflict persists, inflation expectations may strengthen, suppressing the prices. If the US economic slowdown is further confirmed, the market's concern about stagflation may boost precious metals. In the long - term, the long - term bullish logic remains unchanged, and in the short term, the prices are expected to oscillate [7]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Markets - Price Changes: As of March 20, 2026, the Shanghai silver main contract 2606 closed at 17,625 yuan/kg, down 15.76% for the week; the Shanghai gold main contract 2606 closed at 1,039.22 yuan/g, down 8.28% for the week [12]. - ETF Net Positions: As of March 19, 2026, the net positions of gold and silver ETFs in the overseas market decreased. The SPDR gold ETF net position was 1,062.13 tons, down 1.28% month - on - month; the SLV silver ETF net position was 15,187 tons, down 2.3% month - on - month [17]. - Regional Investment Demand: As of February 2026, North American and Asian gold ETFs had net inflows, while European ones had net outflows. North American and European net positions remained high, and Asian ETF positions increased steadily [22]. - COMEX Net Long Positions: As of March 10, 2026, the net long positions of COMEX gold and silver both increased. The COMEX gold net position was 163,132 contracts, up 1.90% month - on - month; the COMEX silver net position was 24,578 contracts, up 5.31% month - on - month [27]. - Basis: As of March 19, 2026, the basis of Shanghai gold and silver main contracts strengthened week - on - week. The basis of the Shanghai gold main contract was 21.00 yuan/g, and that of the Shanghai silver main contract was 1,062 yuan/kg [30]. - Internal - External Price Difference: As of March 19, 2026, the internal - external price difference of gold widened, while that of silver converged. The internal - external price difference of the Shanghai gold main contract was 42.89 yuan/g, and that of the Shanghai silver main contract was 1,859 yuan/kg [33]. - Inventory Changes: As of March 19, 2026, the COMEX gold and silver inventories decreased, while the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) gold and silver inventories increased. The COMEX gold inventory was 32,054,275.29 ounces, down 1.84% month - on - month; the SHFE gold inventory was 105,417 kg, up 0.37% month - on - month. The COMEX silver inventory was 337,892,693 ounces, down 2.10% month - on - month; the SHFE silver inventory was 326,566 kg, up 27.6% month - on - month [36]. - Gold - Silver Ratio: As of March 19, 2026, the gold - silver ratio (London gold/silver price) was 63.90, up 1.59 from the previous week [39]. 3.3. Industry Supply and Demand - Silver Industry: As of December 2025, the import volume of silver and silver ore sand increased significantly. The import volume of Chinese silver was 334,742.41 kg, up 27.03% month - on - month; the import volume of silver ore sand and its concentrates was 239,325,381 kg, up 32.29% month - on - month. Due to the growth of silver demand in the semiconductor industry, the output of integrated circuits continued to rise, and the year - on - year growth rate tended to be stable. As of February 2026, the monthly output of integrated circuits was 4,807,346 pieces, and the year - on - year growth rate was 12.40% [43][47]. - Gold Supply and Demand: In 2025, the investment demand for gold ETFs increased significantly, and emerging - country central banks continued to purchase gold. The total global gold demand reached 5,002 tons, a record high, and the total gold demand amount was 55.5 billion US dollars. The gold investment demand reached a milestone level of 2,175 tons, and the annual net position of gold ETFs increased by 801 tons [51]. - Silver Supply and Demand: In 2025, the improvement of the silver supply - demand situation was mainly due to the recovery of mine production and a slight increase in recycled silver, while investment and industrial demand declined slightly, significantly narrowing the market shortage. It is predicted that the global total silver supply will increase by 3% to about 1,050 million ounces, the total demand will decrease by 4% to about 1,120 million ounces, and the supply - demand gap will narrow to about - 70 million ounces, a decrease of about 53% month - on - month [55]. 3.4. Macroeconomic and Options - Dollar Index and US Bond Yields: As of March 19, 2026, the dollar index was 99.23, up 0.30% week - on - week; the 10 - year US bond real yield was 1.86%, up 0.50% week - on - week [60]. - 10Y - 2Y US Bond Yield Spread and Other Indicators: As of March 19, 2026, the 10Y - 2Y US bond yield spread was 0.50%, down 12.30% week - on - week; the CBOE gold volatility was 31.05 (31.09 in the previous week); the ratio of the S&P 500 to the London gold price was 1.42 (1.30 in the previous week) [61]. - Central Bank Gold Purchases: In January 2026, the global central bank's gold - purchasing pace slowed down. The global central bank's net gold purchase was 5 tons, significantly lower than the monthly average of about 27 tons in 2025. Some central banks increased their gold reserves, while others decreased them, indicating that global central banks continue to diversify their gold reserves, but the short - term buying momentum has weakened [65].