油脂周报：地缘扰动仍存，油脂短期高位震荡-20260320

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Geopolitical factors remain the focus of the oil and fat market. In March, Malaysian palm oil may continue to reduce inventory, but the inventory may remain at a relatively high level due to the high base. Domestic palm oil has a phased inventory accumulation pressure after the delayed arrival of shipments, but India's large - scale imports of palm oil and the increase in biodiesel blending profit are beneficial to palm oil demand. Domestic soybean oil is continuously reducing inventory slightly, and the overall supply is sufficient. It is still supported by the positive expectation of the US biodiesel policy. In the short term, before a large amount of Canadian rapeseed arrives, rapeseed oil maintains a slightly low - level inventory, and the ongoing Middle - East geopolitical war promotes the rapeseed oil price, and rapeseed oil may fluctuate at a high level [4][24]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 International Market - Malaysia - High - frequency data shows that the production of Malaysian palm oil from March 1st to 15th decreased by 5.28%, a significant decline compared with the 1.55% increase in the first 10 days. The rainfall forecast indicates that the production area will be relatively dry in the next week, and the production in March is expected to recover poorly but still increase slightly to around 1.45 million tons. The current spot price of Malaysian CPO has risen to around 4,500, slightly lower than the same period last year. In terms of exports, ITS data shows that the export of Malaysian palm oil from March 1st to 15th increased by 44% month - on - month, with the growth rate expanding compared with the 38% increase in the first 10 days. It is expected that the inventory in March will be reduced to between 2.5 and 2.6 million tons, still at a high level in the same period of history [10]. 3.2 International Market - Indonesia - Starting from March 20th, Indonesia will enter the Eid al - Fitr holiday, lasting about 7 - 10 days. It is expected that the CPO reference price in Indonesia will be raised to around $995 in April, and the taxes and fees will also be raised by one level to $148, which will further increase the cost of palm oil. Affected by the Middle - East geopolitical conflict, the prices of crude oil and diesel have risen significantly, and the POGO spread has dropped significantly, resulting in a significant recovery of the blending profit of palm - based biodiesel, which will increase the demand for palm biodiesel. According to the HIP spread between Indonesian biodiesel and diesel, it is expected that Indonesian biodiesel will not need subsidies in April. Driven by profit, it will be beneficial to the increase in biodiesel production in March and April. As of February 12th, the cumulative biodiesel supply in Indonesia from January to February was about 1.27 million kiloliters, with a completion rate of about 85% in January, and the implementation of biodiesel is good [13]. 3.3 Domestic Palm Oil - As of March 13, 2026 (Week 11), the commercial inventory of palm oil in key national regions was 842,000 tons, an increase of 29,900 tons or 3.68% compared with last week. The palm oil inventory has been continuously increasing and is at a relatively high - level in the same period of history. The origin's quotation is stable, the import profit of the futures market is inverted by about 100, and the basis is running weakly and stably. According to incomplete statistics, there were 6 ship purchases this week. On the demand side, the spot market trading is light, and downstream buyers have a low acceptance of high prices, and the procurement is mainly for rigid demand. In the short term, affected by the sharp rise in crude oil, the overall oil and fat market has risen driven by the increase in biodiesel demand. Considering that geopolitical factors may be volatile, it is expected that palm oil will fluctuate at a high level in the short term [16]. 3.4 Domestic Soybean Oil - As of March 13, 2026, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key national regions was 890,900 tons, a decrease of 15,000 tons or 1.66% compared with last week. The soybean oil inventory is still at a relatively high level in the same period of history. The spot basis of soybean oil varies in different regions, with the basis in the north being stable and slightly strong, and that in East and South China being stable. The spot price difference between soybean oil and palm oil has oscillated and dropped to around - 980, the spot trading volume of soybean oil has increased slightly, and the market trading sentiment has warmed up. The oil mill's crushing and operation rate is gradually rising, and the supply of soybean oil is increasing. It is understood that there is a small amount of domestic soybean oil exports this week, and overall, the soybean oil inventory will continue to remain at a relatively high level. Fundamentally, the domestic soybean oil supply is sufficient, but it is supported by the positive expectation of the US biodiesel policy, and driven by geopolitical factors, soybean oil follows the overall oil and fat market to fluctuate at a high level [19]. 3.5 Domestic Rapeseed Oil - As of March 13, the rapeseed inventory of major coastal oil mills was 151,000 tons, an increase of 30,000 tons compared with last week. As of March 13, 2026, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 282,000 tons, an increase of 19,000 tons, at a relatively neutral and slightly low level in the same period of history. The FOB quotation of European rapeseed oil is stable at around $1,150, and the import profit of European rapeseed oil has an inverted spread that has expanded to around - 1,500. After the Spring Festival, the oil mills have increased their operation, and the supply of rapeseed oil has increased. However, the downstream consumption is in the seasonal off - season, the market demand is weak overall, and the transactions are mainly for a small number of long - term basis contracts. The basis of rapeseed oil is stable. In the short term, rapeseed oil maintains a slightly low - level inventory. Before a large amount of Canadian rapeseed arrives and with the ongoing Middle - East geopolitical war and the interruption of Dubai rapeseed transportation, the rapeseed oil price is promoted to a certain extent, and rapeseed oil may be prone to rise and difficult to fall. However, if the Middle - East war weakens later and a large amount of Canadian rapeseed arrives in April, the supply pressure of long - term rapeseed oil will increase, and the upward pressure on rapeseed oil prices will also be prominent [22]. 3.6 Strategy Recommendations - Unilateral strategy: In the short term, geopolitical disturbances continue, and oil and fat may fluctuate at a high level. - Arbitrage strategy: Consider the opportunity of reverse arbitrage for P5 - 9 and Y5 - 9 when the price is high. - Option strategy: Wait and see. (The views are for reference only and not as a basis for trading) [26]