利率债周报：曲线继续走陡-20260320

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The yield curve continues to steepen, and the interest rate is expected to remain in a range - bound oscillation pattern. In the short - term, it is necessary to observe inflation changes, focusing on short - end certain opportunities. The participation opportunities for medium - and long - term varieties may be taking shape, and caution should be exercised regarding ultra - long - term varieties [3][4][29]. 3. Summary of Each Section According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Important Event Reviews - Financial Data: In the first two months of 2026, the cumulative increase in social financing scale was 9.6 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth of 8.2% in the stock at the end of February. The increase in RMB loans was 5.61 trillion yuan, and the M2 balance at the end of February increased by 9% year - on - year. The main support for social financing in February was on - balance - sheet credit, while the main drag was government bond financing. In terms of credit, corporate credit performed well, while the household sector continued to de - leverage. Looking ahead, the government's fiscal - financial cooperation measures are expected to support social financing and credit, but government bond financing may be affected by a high base [10][11]. - Economic Data: From January to February 2026, the added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size increased by 6.3% year - on - year, social consumer goods retail sales increased by 2.8%, and fixed - asset investment increased by 1.8%. Most sectors showed improved year - on - year readings. In March, the year - on - year readings in the production and consumption sectors may decline, while investment growth is expected to rise further driven by new policy - based financial instruments [12][13]. - Fiscal Data: From January to February 2026, the national general public budget revenue increased by 0.7% year - on - year, and expenditure increased by 3.6%. The national government - managed fund budget revenue decreased by 16%, and expenditure increased by 16%. The characteristics of front - loaded fiscal efforts are obvious. It is expected that the growth rate of public fiscal expenditure will further increase, while the year - on - year growth rate of government - managed fund expenditure may be affected by a high base [14]. 3.2 Funding Prices - During the tax period from March 13th to March 19th, the central bank's net open - market injection was 155.5 billion yuan to cope with the tax period. The funding prices remained stable overall, with DR007 slightly dropping from 1.47% to 1.43% and DR014 rising slightly due to the cross - quarter factor. The yield of inter - bank certificates of deposit declined significantly, and the impact of the reduction in inter - bank deposit interest rates continued [15][16]. 3.3 Primary Market - From March 13th to March 19th, 85 interest - rate bonds were issued in the primary market, with an actual issuance amount of 996.2 billion yuan, and the net financing scale turned positive. The issuance scales of both treasury bonds and special bonds increased. In March, the issuance term of local bonds was shortened, and the proportion of the issuance scale of bonds with a term of over 10 years dropped below 50%. As of March 19th, the new issuance of special bonds in 2026 was about 1.4 trillion yuan, an increase of about 300 billion yuan compared to the same period in 2025 [18]. 3.4 Secondary Market - From March 13th to March 19th, short - term treasury bond yields declined, while medium - and long - term treasury bond yields increased, and the yield curve continued to steepen, with the 10 - year treasury bond yield rising by 2bp to 1.83%. The decline in short - term interest rates was mainly driven by loose funding and the reduction in inter - bank deposit interest rates. The medium - and long - term bond market continued to weaken due to the strong year - on - year readings of consumption, investment, and production in January - February data and the impact of energy inflation [21]. 3.5 Market Outlook - Fundamentals: The economic data at the beginning of the year has a certain impact on the bond market, but some data improvements are related to the Spring Festival. The readings in March may decline seasonally. Supply - side inflation pressure has a relatively limited impact on the bond market, and future attention should be paid to the contribution of the demand side to inflation. - Policy: The front - loaded use of fiscal and quasi - fiscal tools is currently a negative factor for the bond market, which is in line with the economic trend in January - February. - Funding: The optimization of the inter - bank deposit structure helps banks relieve the pressure on interest rate spreads, and there is less need for a full - scale reserve requirement ratio cut. The central bank still has room to passively inject base money through foreign exchange purchases, and the funding is expected to remain moderately loose [29][30].