沪铜市场周报：需求转好库存去化，铜价或将有所支撑-20260320

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Shanghai copper futures market is expected to be supported by improved demand and inventory reduction. It is recommended to conduct short - term long positions at low prices with light positions, while paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [6] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Summary - Market Review: The weekly line of the Shanghai copper main contract fluctuated and declined, with a weekly change of - 5.55%. As of the end of the week, the main contract closed at 94,740 yuan/ton [6] - International Situation: During the "Super Central Bank Week", the European Central Bank, and the central banks of Japan, the UK, Switzerland, and Sweden announced on March 19 that they would maintain interest rates unchanged. All central banks emphasized the uncertainty caused by the Middle - East conflict, and the market's expectation of interest rate hikes increased sharply [6] - Domestic Situation: The Ministry of Finance stated that in 2026, it will continue to implement a more proactive fiscal policy, focusing on seven aspects of work [6] - Fundamentals: The spot index of copper concentrate TC hit a new low, increasing the expectation of tight supply. Overseas geopolitical situations affected economic growth expectations, causing copper prices to decline under pressure. Smelters maintained a high production level. As copper prices fell, the upstream's willingness to hold back goods and raise prices increased, and the willingness to release scattered orders decreased. Downstream copper product processing plants increased their operations of replenishing inventory at low prices, and the spot market trading improved. In the traditional consumption peak season and stimulated by the decline in copper prices, consumption demand improved, and the inflection point of copper social inventory appeared, showing an obvious reduction [6] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Futures Contract: As of March 20, 2026, the basis of the Shanghai copper main contract was - 4,485 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 3,950 yuan/ton. The main contract was quoted at 94,740 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 5,570 yuan/ton, and the open interest was 201,181 lots, a week - on - week increase of 10,270 lots [12] - Spot Price: As of March 20, 2026, the average spot price of 1 electrolytic copper was 95,825 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 4,395 yuan/ton. The inter - month spread of the Shanghai copper main contract was 70 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 520 yuan/ton [15] - Copper Premium and Position: As of the latest data this week, the CIF average premium of Shanghai electrolytic copper was 47 US dollars/ton, a week - on - week increase of 2 US dollars/ton. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai copper was a net short position of - 71,253 lots, an increase of 12,148 lots compared with last week [24] - Options Market: As of March 20, 2026, the short - term implied volatility of the at - the - money options contract of the Shanghai copper main contract was above the 75th percentile of historical volatility. As of this week's data, the put - call ratio of Shanghai copper options open interest was 0.81, with a week - on - week change of 0.0395 [29] 3.3 Upstream Situation - Copper Ore Price and Processing Fee: As of the latest data this week, the copper concentrate price in the main domestic mining area (Jiangxi) was 86,100 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 3,560 yuan/ton. The processing fee for southern crude copper this week was 1,800 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 300 yuan/ton [30] - Copper Ore Import and Scrap - Refined Spread: As of February 2026, the monthly import volume of copper ore and concentrates was 2.3103 million tons, a decrease of 312,800 tons from January, a decline of 11.92%, and a year - on - year increase of 5.96%. As of the latest data this week, the scrap - refined copper spread (including tax) was 3,786.78 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 331.4 yuan/ton [37] - Global Copper Ore Production and Port Inventory: As of December 2025, the monthly global production of copper concentrates was 2,050 thousand tons, an increase of 159 thousand tons from November, an increase of 8.41%. The global capacity utilization rate of copper concentrates was 82.3%, an increase of 3.6% from November. As of the latest data, the inventory of copper concentrates in seven domestic ports was 404,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 81,000 tons [42] 3.4 Industry Situation - Refined Copper Production: As of December 2025, the monthly production of refined copper in China was 1.326 million tons, an increase of 90,000 tons from November, an increase of 7.28%, and a year - on - year increase of 6.76%. As of December 2025, the global monthly production of refined copper (primary + recycled) was 2,431 thousand tons, an increase of 70 thousand tons from November, an increase of 2.96%. The capacity utilization rate of refined copper was 80.2%, a decrease of 0.6% from November [44] - Refined Copper Import: As of February 2026, the monthly import volume of refined copper was 203,588.219 tons, a decrease of 47,080.37 tons from January, a decline of 18.78%, and a year - on - year decline of 33.28% [52] - Social Inventory: As of the latest data this week, the total LME inventory increased by 23,600 tons week - on - week, the total COMEX inventory decreased by 2,841 tons week - on - week, and the SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 27,211 tons week - on - week. The total social inventory was 540,500 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 24,400 tons [57] 3.5 Downstream and Application - Copper Product Production and Import: As of December 2025, the monthly production of copper products was 2.2291 million tons, an increase of 3,100 tons from November, an increase of 0.14%. As of February 2026, the monthly import volume of copper products was 320,000 tons, a decrease of 60,000 tons from January, a decline of 15.79%, and a year - on - year decline of 23.81% [63] - Power Grid Investment and Home Appliance Production: As of December 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rates of power and grid investment completion were 5.11% and - 4.65% respectively. As of December 2025, the year - on - year growth rates of the monthly production values of washing machines, air conditioners, refrigerators, freezers, and color TVs were - 4.4%, - 9.6%, 5.7%, 7%, and - 1.2% respectively [67] - Real Estate Investment and Integrated Circuit Production: As of February 2026, the cumulative completed real estate development investment was 961.211 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 11.1% and a month - on - month increase of 88.39%. As of February 2026, the cumulative production of integrated circuits was 81.52 million pieces, a year - on - year increase of 12.4% and a month - on - month increase of 83.17% [73] 3.6 Overall Situation - Global Supply - Demand Situation: According to ICSG statistics, as of December 2025, the global supply - demand balance was in a state of oversupply, with a monthly value of 173 thousand tons. According to WBMS statistics, as of January 2026, the cumulative global supply - demand balance was 129,300 tons [78]