KAIYUAN SECURITIES·2026-03-20 10:24Investment Rating - The investment rating for Alibaba-SW (09988.HK) is maintained as "Buy" [1] Core Views - Strong demand for cloud services is expected to continue, with a target of achieving $100 billion in cloud and AI commercialization revenue over the next five years, including MaaS [1][3] - Short-term focus on stabilizing market share in e-commerce, with flash sales driving user growth and improving order density and average transaction value [3] - Adjusted net profit forecasts for FY2026-2028 have been revised down to 78.7 billion, 105.6 billion, and 137.8 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year growth of -50.2%, +34.3%, and +30.5% respectively [1][2] Financial Summary and Valuation Metrics - Revenue for FY2026 is projected at 1,174.3 billion RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 17.9% [5] - Non-GAAP net profit for FY2026 is expected to be 78.7 billion RMB, reflecting a significant decline of 50.2% year-on-year [5] - The diluted EPS for FY2026 is estimated at 4.4 RMB, with corresponding P/E ratios of 26.6, 19.5, and 14.6 for FY2026, FY2027, and FY2028 respectively [5]