银河期货烧碱周报-20260320

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the caustic soda market prices generally increased, with a slight contraction in supply and a slight decline in demand. Chlor - alkali enterprises' profits turned from profit to loss, and the losses expanded. The prices of Shandong 32% ion - membrane caustic soda and Wuhai 99% flake caustic soda increased by 2.18% and 3.45% respectively. The weekly average prices of low - and high - concentration liquid caustic soda in various regions all rose, and the prices in the main flake caustic soda production areas generally increased, except for a slight decline in Ningxia. The national chlor - alkali enterprise operating load rate dropped to 89.54%, and the caustic soda production in terms of 100% purity decreased to 871,200 tons. The maintenance loss doubled. The liquid caustic soda inventories in Shandong and East China decreased, and the production of flake caustic soda produced by the molten salt method slightly increased. The operating rates of alumina and viscose staple fiber decreased by 0.22 and 4.54 percentage points respectively, and the overall downstream demand was tepid. In terms of profitability, enterprises with self - owned power plants in Shandong had an average loss of 7.52 yuan/ton for ECU, and the loss of enterprises without self - owned power plants widened to 204.13 yuan/ton, mainly because the decline in liquid chlorine prices exceeded the increase in liquid caustic soda prices. Currently, there are many export inquiries, and there is still room for price increases in 32% caustic soda. With the continuous and escalating overseas conflicts, it is expected that caustic soda will fluctuate next week [4]. - The trading strategies are: for unilateral trading, caustic soda will fluctuate; for arbitrage and options, it is recommended to wait and see [4]. 3. Summaries According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - Market Conditions: This week, the caustic soda market prices generally increased. The supply slightly contracted, and the demand slightly declined. Chlor - alkali enterprises' profits turned from profit to loss, and the losses expanded. The prices of Shandong 32% ion - membrane caustic soda and Wuhai 99% flake caustic soda increased by 2.18% and 3.45% respectively. The weekly average prices of low - and high - concentration liquid caustic soda in various regions all rose, and the prices in the main flake caustic soda production areas generally increased, except for a slight decline in Ningxia [4]. - Supply: The national chlor - alkali enterprise operating load rate dropped to 89.54%, and the caustic soda production in terms of 100% purity decreased to 871,200 tons. The maintenance loss doubled. The liquid caustic soda inventories in Shandong and East China decreased, and the production of flake caustic soda produced by the molten salt method slightly increased [4]. - Demand: The operating rates of alumina and viscose staple fiber decreased by 0.22 and 4.54 percentage points respectively, and the overall downstream demand was tepid [4]. - Profitability: Enterprises with self - owned power plants in Shandong had an average loss of 7.52 yuan/ton for ECU, and the loss of enterprises without self - owned power plants widened to 204.13 yuan/ton, mainly because the decline in liquid chlorine prices exceeded the increase in liquid caustic soda prices [4]. - Trading Strategies: Unilateral trading: caustic soda will fluctuate; Arbitrage: wait and see; Options: wait and see [4]. 3.2 Core Logic Analysis - Alumina Market: This week, the domestic alumina spot prices continued to rise, and the increase expanded. Due to the continuous geopolitical conflict in the Middle East and the expected tightening of Guinea's ore export policy, the industry is worried about the impact of global inflation expectations and the increase in medium - term alumina production costs, so some downstream enterprises increased their procurement appropriately. This week, the operation of national alumina enterprises was relatively stable, with only normal maintenance of the roasting furnaces of individual southern alumina enterprises. Currently, most alumina enterprises using imported ores use 60 - 62 US dollars per ton of ores. With the support of the rising domestic spot prices, the industry's profits have been repaired, and enterprises have a strong willingness to maintain stable production. As of this Friday, the national alumina production capacity was 114.62 million tons, with an operating capacity of 93.7 million tons, a decrease of 200,000 tons from last week, and an operating rate of 81.7%. Excluding 10 million tons of zombie production capacity (production capacity that has not been in operation for more than a year), the operating rate this week was 89.7%. Next weekend, one alumina enterprise in Guizhou and one in Guangxi will carry out planned roasting furnace maintenance, with an expected maintenance time of about 10 - 12 days. At the same time, a new alumina project in Guangxi is about to start production, and it is expected that finished products will be produced in mid - to late April. With the co - existence of maintenance and new production in the southern market, there are expectations for adjustments in the market supply situation [18]. - Caustic Soda Market: The caustic soda market prices generally increased this week. The supply slightly contracted, and the demand slightly declined. Chlor - alkali enterprises' profits turned from profit to loss, and the losses expanded. With the continuous and escalating overseas conflicts, it is expected that caustic soda will fluctuate next week [4]. 3.3 Weekly Data Tracking - Inventory: As of March 19, 2026, the inventory of fixed - liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a production capacity of 200,000 tons and above in the country was 500,700 tons (wet tons), a decrease of 6.28% from the previous week and an increase of 20.22% year - on - year. This week, the inventory - to - capacity ratio of national liquid caustic soda sample enterprises was 28.02%, a decrease of 2.39% from the previous week. The inventory - to - capacity ratios of liquid caustic soda in the northwest, north, central, east, and south regions all declined. In the north region, the overall inventory of 50% caustic soda in Shandong was under no pressure under the drive of export order inquiries and the overall bullish market sentiment. The sales performance of low - concentration caustic soda in each factory varied, but after the price increase stabilized, most of them basically maintained a balance of rigid demand. However, the purchase price of the main downstream has not been adjusted, and after the factory did not have continuous price increases, the mentality of some industry players has changed. But judging from the current inventory - to - capacity ratio of Shandong liquid caustic soda, the inventory pressure is not large. Overall, the inventory in the north region showed a decline. In the east region, due to the continuous positive situation in the high - concentration caustic soda market, the downstream buying sentiment was strong, and the enterprise inventory decreased rapidly, which drove up the price of low - concentration caustic soda, and enterprises appropriately reduced their inventory. Therefore, overall, the inventory in the east region showed a decline after the Spring Festival. In the south region, driven by the rising price of northern caustic soda, with the downstream's buying sentiment, the regional inventory - to - capacity ratio showed a decline. In the central region, with the continuous increase in the price of goods from southwest Shandong, the downstream procurement enthusiasm increased, the actual transaction price in Henan increased, and an enterprise in Hubei was under maintenance, resulting in a shortage of liquid caustic soda supply, and the inventory in the central region decreased. In the northwest region, the sales atmosphere of liquid caustic soda was good, the non - aluminum demand increased, the sales of high - concentration caustic soda improved, some enterprises executed previous orders, the price of liquid caustic soda continued to rise, and the liquid caustic soda inventory decreased. In the southwest region, the chlor - alkali profit continued to increase, the enterprise operation rate increased, the impact of external goods decreased, the downstream demand was stable, the price of liquid caustic soda in the southwest region increased, and the liquid caustic soda inventory fluctuated slightly [13]. - Production: This week (March 13 - 19, 2026), the average capacity utilization rate of caustic soda sample enterprises with a production capacity of 100,000 tons and above in China was 83.9%, a decrease of 1.4% from the previous week. During the week, the chlor - alkali loads in the north and central regions declined, while in the south, the load in Guangxi increased due to the resumption of some previously maintained equipment. In the southwest, due to the trial operation of two newly added chlor - alkali equipment without commercial output, the local load declined. Next week, there will be both equipment maintenance and expected partial restart in the north region, and most of the maintenance in other regions is concentrated in April. Therefore, it is estimated that the national chlor - alkali load will remain around 84% next week [19].