螺纹日报：震荡整理-20260320

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Core Viewpoint The main contract of rebar is in a narrow - range oscillation. The medium - term trend is strengthening according to the moving average, standing above the 30 - day and 60 - day moving averages. It will mainly follow the spot price to repair the basis. In the fundamental aspect, as it enters the peak season, it is expected to continue the oscillatory and moderately strong operation. The current situation of demand recovery and inventory reduction supports the sentiment, and geopolitical events affect cost changes and export expectations. The rebar price is likely to maintain an oscillatory and moderately strong pattern. It is necessary to continuously monitor the downstream resumption progress and inventory reduction speed [6]. Summary by Directory Market Review - Futures Price: On Friday, the open interest of the main rebar contract decreased by 62,026 lots. The trading volume increased compared with the previous trading day, reaching 724,139 lots. In terms of the moving average, it briefly fell below the 5 - day moving average of 3137, but the daily line is above the medium - term 30 - day moving average of 3092 and 60 - day moving average of 3113, indicating a strengthening medium - term trend [1]. - Spot Price: The mainstream spot price of HRB400E 20mm rebar is 3,240 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared with the previous trading day [1]. - Basis: The futures price is at a discount of 117 yuan/ton to the spot price [2]. Fundamental Data - Supply - demand Situation: In the week of March 19, 2026, rebar production was 2.0333 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 80,300 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 228,800 tons. The steel mill's resumption of production is moderate, and the supply pressure on prices is limited. The current apparent demand was 2.0809 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 312,800 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 349,100 tons. Seasonal resumption of work drives the rebound of apparent demand, but it is still weak year - on - year. Social inventory was 6.5321 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 13,400 tons; steel mill inventory was 2.362 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 34,200 tons; the total inventory was 8.8941 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 47,600 tons, entering the weekly inventory reduction phase, which verifies the start of demand. However, the absolute inventory and inventory - to - sales ratio are still high, suppressing the upward space of prices [3]. - Cost and Profit: The rebar price valuation is at a low level. Geopolitical factors drive up oil prices and shipping costs, providing support for commodity prices [3]. - Macroeconomic Aspect: The Fourth Session of the 14th National People's Congress held on March 5, 2026, released positive signals. The government work report proposed measures such as issuing 1.3 trillion yuan of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds, arranging 4.4 trillion yuan of local government special bonds, and implementing a moderately loose monetary policy. The market's expectation of infrastructure and real estate support has increased, and the sentiment has received phased support [5]. Driving Factor Analysis - Bullish Factors: Low rebar price valuation, geopolitical factors driving up costs, policy support expectations, implementation of steel mill production cuts, and cost support repair [6]. - Bearish Factors: Persistent weak terminal demand, weakening cost support, continuous inventory accumulation, slowdown in inventory reduction speed, and bearish capital position structure [6].