铁矿日报：短期扰动因素较多，基本面压力仍存-20260320

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - In the short term, iron ore is affected by supply - side and geopolitical disturbances, making it difficult to price based on fundamentals, and it is expected to fluctuate. Medium - to long - term, the high - inventory pressure is hard to ease, and the overall situation remains loose. If macro disturbances weaken, the fundamental pressure on iron ore will be large, and the medium - term performance is expected to be weakly fluctuating. In the short term, the downside space is limited, and it may enter a high - level consolidation phase [2][5] Summary by Directory Market行情态势回顾 - Futures prices: The main iron ore futures contract showed a slightly stronger intraday oscillation, closing at 815.5 yuan/ton, up 8.0 yuan/ton or 0.99% from the previous trading day's closing price. The trading volume was 247,000 lots, the open interest was 450,000 lots, and the settled funds were 8.077 billion yuan. The short - term support is around 795, and the short - term resistance is around 825, showing a slightly stronger oscillation within the support - resistance range [1] - Spot prices: The mainstream port spot varieties, Qingdao Port PB powder, rose 3 to 794, and Super Special powder rose 3 to 673. The swap main contract was at 108.35 (+0.9) US dollars/ton. The swap was highly volatile, and the spot prices rose slightly [1] - Basis and spread: The converted futures price of Qingdao Port PB powder was 826.9 yuan/ton, with a basis of 11.4 yuan/ton, and the basis slightly shrank. The iron ore 5 - 9 spread was 34.5 yuan, and the 9 - 1 spread was 22 yuan [1] Fundamental Analysis - Supply: Overseas mine shipments increased month - on - month, with both Australia, Brazil, and non - mainstream countries showing month - on - month rebounds. The arrivals this period decreased month - on - month, and the rhythm of shipments and arrivals still fluctuated [2] - Demand: The profitability rate of steel mills increased month - on - month. After the Two Sessions, the environmental protection restrictions in Hebei were lifted, and the blast furnaces under maintenance resumed production. The hot metal production recovered month - on - month, and some steel mills extended the resumption of production. There is still room for hot metal recovery. Attention should be paid to the support of peak - season demand [2] - Inventory: The iron ore port inventory decreased slightly month - on - month, the berthing inventory declined, and the steel mills' imported ore inventory accumulated [2] - Overall situation: Under the background of continuous supply - side and geopolitical disturbances, it is difficult to price iron ore based on fundamentals. In the short term, it is expected to fluctuate. In the medium - to long - term, the high - inventory pressure is hard to ease, and the overall situation remains loose. If macro disturbances weaken, the fundamental pressure on iron ore will be large, and the medium - term performance is expected to be weakly fluctuating [2] Macro - level Analysis - Domestic: After the important meetings, the domestic macro - economy has entered the verification period of fundamental reality. This week, the domestic export, inflation, and financial data were mainly released, and the overall data performance was relatively good. The macro - fundamentals maintained resilience, increasing the probability of a "good start" in the first quarter. The reality of external demand resilience has been initially confirmed, and the resilience of domestic demand is still reflected in the financial and capital levels. High - frequency commodity consumption is still at a seasonal low after the Spring Festival resumption of work. In the future, attention should be paid to the progress of domestic demand investment repair, the impact of imported inflation on the domestic price structure, and the sustainability of export resilience [4] - Overseas: The market is gradually pricing in the possibility that the high - oil - price environment may continue, and the market's concern about the US economic stagflation in the first quarter has further intensified. In the future, the overseas macro - logic may gradually shift from the "soft landing" expectation driven by the loosening of liquidity to the arrival time and amplitude of "inflation" and the possibility and time of the shift from "inflation" to "stagflation" [4] Viewpoint Summary - The iron ore fundamentals show that the supply is still loose, the hot metal production on the demand side has decreased, the resumption of production has been delayed, and the port inventory has declined to some extent. The overall fundamentals are still weak. Under the double disturbances of the supply side and geopolitics, it is difficult to trade based on the fundamental logic. The iron ore futures and spot show a positive basis, and the BACK structure continues. In the short term, the downside space is limited, and it may enter a high - level consolidation phase. Attention should be paid to further tests near the upper resistance [5]