油粕日报：关注近月到港-20260320

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The supply of soybeans in April has shifted from loose to slightly tight, and soybean meal has fallen from its high but still has some support below. Attention should be paid to subsequent soybean reserve release announcements [2] - It is estimated that edible oils will fluctuate at a high level in the short term, and attention should be paid to changes in the Middle - East situation around the end of the month [3] Summary by Related Content Soybean Meal - Abiove expects Brazil's soybean production in the 2025/26 season to reach 177.85 million tons, up from the previous estimate of 177.12 million tons; exports in 2026 to be 111.5 million tons, the same as the previous estimate; the crushing volume in 2026 to reach a record 61.5 million tons, higher than the previous estimate of 61 million tons; soybean meal production in 2026 to be 47.4 million tons, up from the previous estimate of 47 million tons; and soybean oil production to be 12.35 million tons, up from the previous estimate of 12.25 million tons [1] - As of March 11, 2026, Argentine farmers pre - sold 7.52 million tons of 2025/26 season soybeans, compared with 7.45 million tons in the same period last year. They also sold 44.27 million tons of 2024/25 season soybeans, compared with 39.22 million tons in the same period last year. Last week, they sold 170,000 tons [1] - Brazil temporarily cancelled a quarantine measure, allowing soybean shipments to resume normal. However, due to previous shipping delays, some April soybean shipments to China were postponed to May, and the April soybean supply has become slightly tight. Trump postponed his visit to China, and US soybean demand has weakened, causing soybean meal to fall from its high [2] Edible Oils - Abiove believes that the Brazilian government should allow a higher proportion of biodiesel to be mixed in regular diesel to deal with the energy price crisis caused by the US - Israel - Iran war. Brazilian biodiesel producers are ready to support a 20% mixing ratio (B20) [2] - According to AmSpec, Malaysia's palm oil exports from March 1 - 20, 2026 were 1,166,586 tons, a 49.6% increase compared to the same period last month [2] - With the sharp rise in crude oil prices, major bio - fuel producing countries are taking action. Policies such as Indonesia's B50, the US's new bio - fuel policy, and Brazil's B20 are in the works. Policy - related benefits may gradually materialize as crude oil prices remain high [3]