PP日报：PP震荡下行-20260320

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - PP prices are expected to oscillate strongly in the near term, and attention should be paid to the progress of downstream resumption of production after the holiday and the development of the Middle - East situation. The domestic supply - demand pattern of PP has improved, and the chemical industry's anti - involution is still expected. The Middle - East situation boosts the energy and chemical industry. Although PP does not rely on Middle - East imported goods, its upstream depends on Middle - East liquefied petroleum gas and crude oil, and the shortage of raw materials has led to a reduction in the load of olefin plants at home and abroad, resulting in a tight supply of domestic PP standard products and weak spot transactions [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - As of the week of March 20, the downstream operating rate of PP increased by 0.65 percentage points to 46.36% week - on - week. After the fourth week of the Spring Festival holiday, the downstream's acceptance of high - priced raw materials was low, and demand recovered slowly. The operating rate of the main downstream plastics of drawstring decreased by 0.26 percentage points to 40.28%. On March 20, new shutdown devices such as a single line of Zhongsha Tianjin and a line of Zhenhai Refining and Chemical were added. The operating rate of PP enterprises dropped to about 76.5%, at a relatively low level, and the production ratio of standard drawstring increased to about 24.5%. After the Spring Festival holiday, the petrochemical inventory has been reduced, and currently the petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level in the same period in recent years. The cost of crude oil has dropped from a high level. Although the device operating rate has slightly recovered recently, it is still lower than the end of February. After the Lantern Festival, the downstream rigid demand was released intensively, and the price of downstream BOPP film increased [1] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The PP2605 contract decreased in position and oscillated downward, with a minimum price of 8762 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 9197 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 9019 yuan/ton, above the 20 - day moving average, with a decline of 1.04%. The position decreased by 29,253 lots to 361,277 lots [2] - Spot: Most spot prices of PP in various regions declined. The drawstring was reported at 8230 - 8930 yuan/ton [3] 3.3 Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On March 20, new shutdown devices such as a single line of Zhongsha Tianjin and a line of Zhenhai Refining and Chemical were added. The operating rate of PP enterprises dropped to about 76.5%, at a relatively low level, and the production ratio of standard drawstring increased to about 24.5% [4] - Demand: As of the week of March 20, the downstream operating rate of PP increased by 0.65 percentage points to 46.36% week - on - week. After the fourth week of the Spring Festival holiday, the downstream's acceptance of high - priced raw materials was low, and demand recovered slowly. The operating rate of the main downstream plastics of drawstring decreased by 0.26 percentage points to 40.28% [4] - Inventory: The early petrochemical inventory on Friday decreased by 30,000 tons to 810,000 tons week - on - week, 10,000 tons higher than the same period of last lunar year. Currently, the petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level in the same period in recent years [4] 3.4 Raw Material End - The Brent crude oil 05 contract dropped to $108 per barrel, and the CFR propylene price in China remained flat at $1100 per ton week - on - week [6]