每日核心期货品种分析-20260320

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report analyzes the performance and market conditions of various futures commodities as of March 20, 2026. It points out that the performance of domestic futures contracts varies, with some commodities rising and others falling. The market is significantly affected by factors such as the Middle - East situation, supply - demand relationships, and macro - economic policies. Different commodities face different supply - demand situations and price trends, and investors are advised to pay attention to relevant factors and market dynamics [5][6][8]. 3. Summary by Commodity 3.1 Commodity Performance - As of the close on March 20, domestic futures contracts showed mixed performance. LPG rose by over 8%, and manganese silicon rose by over 3%. Low - sulfur fuel oil (LU) fell by over 8%, and沪银 and bottle chips fell by over 6% [5]. - In the stock index futures, the main contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM all declined, with declines of 0.28%, 0.95%, 1.17%, and 1.27% respectively. In the bond futures, the main contracts of TS, TF, T, and TL all declined, with declines of 0.01%, 0.06%, 0.09%, and 0.42% respectively [6]. - In terms of capital flow, as of 15:20 on March 20, the main contracts of CSI 1000 2606, CSI 2606, and SSE 2606 had capital inflows of 4.009 billion, 1.205 billion, and 0.695 billion respectively.沪金 2604, crude oil 2605, and沪银 2606 had capital outflows of 4.449 billion, 2.329 billion, and 1.464 billion respectively [6]. 3.2 Market Analysis - 沪铜: It opened low and closed high, showing a weak trend during the day. The supply of copper concentrates is tight, but the terminal demand is not optimistic. With the postponement of the Fed's interest - rate cut and the strengthening of the US dollar, copper prices are under pressure [8]. - Carbonate Lithium: It opened low and closed high, with a late - session decline. The prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade carbonate lithium both decreased. The import volume in February 2026 decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year. The demand growth rate shows signs of weakening, and the macro - sentiment affects the price [10]. - Crude Oil: EIA data shows that the US crude - oil inventory increased more than expected, but the refined - oil inventory decreased significantly. The Middle - East situation is tense, and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has led to production cuts in Middle - East oil - producing countries. Although some measures have been taken to relieve the supply pressure, the risk of price increases still exists [11][12]. - Asphalt: The supply side has a low - level start - up rate. The downstream demand is gradually recovering. The cost is strongly supported, and the price is expected to be strong and volatile, depending on the Middle - East situation [13][15]. - PP: The downstream start - up rate has slightly recovered, and the enterprise start - up rate is at a low level. The cost of raw materials has decreased, and the supply - demand pattern has improved. The price is expected to be strongly volatile, depending on the downstream resumption of production and the Middle - East situation [16]. - Plastic: The start - up rate has decreased, and the downstream start - up rate has increased. The supply - demand pattern has improved. The price is expected to be strongly volatile, depending on the downstream resumption of production and the Middle - East situation [17][18]. - PVC: The start - up rate has decreased, and the downstream start - up rate has increased. The export situation has improved, but the inventory pressure is still large. The price is expected to be strongly volatile if the Strait of Hormuz does not resume navigation [19][20]. - Coking Coal: It opened low and closed high, showing a strong trend during the day. The domestic coal production has increased, and the downstream inventory has increased. The price is expected to be strong, depending on the performance in the peak season [21]. - Urea: It opened low and closed low, showing a decline. The factory price is expected to weaken, and the supply is abundant. The inventory has decreased, and the price is expected to fluctuate at a high level after a callback [22][23].