塑料日报：低开后震荡运行-20260320

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - The domestic supply - demand pattern of plastics has improved, and there are still expectations for the chemical industry to fight against involution. The situation in the Middle East boosts the energy - chemical industry. The plastics price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the near future. Attention should be paid to the progress of downstream resumption of production after the festival and the development of the Middle East situation [1] Summary by Directory 1.行情分析 - On March 20, new parking devices such as Zhongsha Petrochemical HDPE and Zhongying Petrochemical HDPE were added, and the plastic operating rate dropped to about 85%, which is at a neutral level [1][4] - As of the week of March 20, the downstream operating rate of PE increased by 3.76 percentage points to 37.59% month - on - month. After the Spring Festival holiday, downstream factories gradually resumed production but did not return to the pre - holiday level, showing a seasonal change [1][4] - After the Spring Festival, petrochemical inventories have been reduced, and currently petrochemical inventories are at a neutral level in the same period in recent years [1][4] - Due to the situation in the Middle East, the crude oil price dropped from a high level. The new production capacities of BASF (Guangdong) FDPE (500,000 tons/year) and Yulong Petrochemical LDPE/EVA (300,000 tons/year) were put into production in January 2026, and there are no plans to put new production capacities into operation in the first quarter [1] - After the Lantern Festival, downstream factories resumed work, and the rigid demand was released intensively. The prices of agricultural films in North, East and South China continued to rise. However, downstream customers showed resistance to high prices and procurement became more cautious, with weak spot transactions [1] 2.期现行情 Futures - The plastic 2605 contract opened lower, reduced positions and fluctuated. The lowest price was 8,542 yuan/ton, the highest price was 8,954 yuan/ton, and it finally closed at 8,818 yuan/ton, above the 60 - day moving average, with a decline of 0.94%. The trading volume decreased by 20,434 lots to 336,310 lots [2] Spot - Most of the PE spot market declined, with the price change ranging from - 300 to + 0 yuan/ton. LLDPE was reported at 8,330 - 8,970 yuan/ton, LDPE at 10,230 - 11,310 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 8,490 - 9,640 yuan/ton [3] 3.基本面跟踪 - Supply: On March 20, new parking devices such as Zhongsha Petrochemical HDPE and Zhongying Petrochemical HDPE were added, and the plastic operating rate dropped to about 85%, at a neutral level [4] - Demand: As of the week of March 20, the downstream operating rate of PE increased by 3.76 percentage points to 37.59% month - on - month. After the Spring Festival holiday, downstream factories gradually resumed production but did not return to the pre - holiday level, showing a seasonal change [4] - Petrochemical inventory: On Friday, the early petrochemical inventory decreased by 30,000 tons to 810,000 tons week - on - week, 10,000 tons higher than the same period in the lunar calendar last year, at a neutral level in the same period in recent years [4] - Raw material: The Brent crude oil 05 contract dropped to $108/barrel. The price of Northeast Asian ethylene increased by $70/ton to $1,350/ton month - on - month, and the price of Southeast Asian ethylene also increased by $70/ton to $1,350/ton month - on - month [4]