今年1-2月财政收入同比增长0.7%，资金面平稳宽松，债市走势分化

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On March 19, the capital market showed a mixed performance. The capital market was stable and loose, the bond market had a differentiated trend with short - term bonds remaining strong and long - term bonds weakening. The convertible bond market followed the decline of the equity market, and most convertible bond individual securities fell. The yields of U.S. Treasury bonds of different maturities were also differentiated, and the 10 - year Treasury bond yields of major European economies generally increased [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Bond Market News 3.1.1 Domestic News - From January to February this year, the national general public budget revenue was 4.4154 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.7%. Among them, national tax revenue was 3.6393 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.1%, and non - tax revenue was 776.1 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.4%. Central general public budget revenue decreased by 1.7% year - on - year, while local general public budget revenue increased by 2.6% year - on - year [3]. - The central bank will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, firmly maintain the stable operation of financial markets such as stocks, bonds, and foreign exchange, and study the establishment of a liquidity support mechanism for non - bank financial institutions in specific scenarios [4]. - The CSRC held a symposium on the "15th Five - Year Plan" of the capital market with investment institutions, and participants put forward suggestions on deepening investment - side reform and enhancing the internal stability of the capital market [5]. - The State Administration of Foreign Exchange will further improve the expectation management mechanism, maintain the stable operation of the foreign exchange market, deepen foreign exchange reform and innovation, and promote high - level opening - up in the foreign exchange field [6]. - The Ministry of Commerce stated that China and the U.S. will continue to play the role of the Sino - U.S. economic and trade consultation mechanism, strengthen dialogue and communication, and promote the stable and positive development of bilateral economic and trade relations [7]. 3.1.2 International News - On March 19, the European Central Bank kept the deposit rate unchanged at 2% for the sixth consecutive time. It warned that the Middle East conflict has significantly increased the uncertainty of the euro - zone economic outlook, with upward inflation risks and downward economic growth pressure [8]. 3.1.3 Commodities - On March 19, WTI April crude oil futures fell 0.18% to $96.14 per barrel, Brent May crude oil futures rose 1.18% to $108.65 per barrel, spot gold fell 3.42% to $4,653.01 per ounce, and NYMEX April natural gas futures fell 2.31% to $3.128 per million British thermal units [9]. 3.2 Capital Market 3.2.1 Open Market Operations - On March 19, the central bank conducted 13 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed - rate and quantity - tender basis, with an operating rate of 1.40%. The net withdrawal of funds on the day was 1.15 billion yuan due to the maturity of 24.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchases [10]. 3.2.2 Capital Interest Rates - On March 19, the capital market was stable and loose. DR001 rose 0.03bp to 1.320%, and DR007 fell 0.61bp to 1.427%. Other capital interest rates also showed different changes [11][12]. 3.3 Bond Market Dynamics 3.3.1 Interest - Bearing Bonds - Spot Bond Yield Trends: On March 19, the yields of major inter - bank interest - bearing bonds showed a differentiated trend. Short - term bonds were strong due to the loose capital market, while long - term bonds weakened due to profit - taking. For example, the yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond active bond 250022 rose 0.80bp to 1.8360%, and the yield of the 10 - year CDB bond active bond 250220 rose 0.65bp to 1.9780% [14]. - Bond Tendering Situations: Multiple bonds were tendered on March 19, with different issuance scales, winning yields, full - field multiples, and marginal multiples [16]. 3.3.2 Credit Bonds - Secondary Market Transaction Abnormalities: On March 19, the transaction prices of two industrial bonds deviated by more than 10%. "H2 Vanke 02" fell by more than 10%, and "H1 Vanke 06" rose by more than 11% [17]. - Credit Bond Events: Multiple companies announced events such as loan defaults, bill payment defaults, redemption option decisions, and bond issuance cancellations [20]. 3.3.3 Convertible Bonds - Equity and Convertible Bond Indexes: On March 19, the three major A - share indexes fell, and the convertible bond market also weakened. The CSI Convertible Bond Index, Shanghai Stock Exchange Convertible Bond Index, and Shenzhen Stock Exchange Convertible Bond Index fell 1.64%, 1.53%, and 1.84% respectively. Most convertible bond individual securities fell [19]. - Convertible Bond Tracking: On March 20, Tonglian Convertible Bond was listed. On March 19, Huaxiang Co., Ltd.'s convertible bond issuance was approved by the exchange, and Hongtu Convertible Bond announced a downward revision of the conversion price [26]. 3.3.4 Overseas Bond Markets - U.S. Bond Market: On March 19, the yields of U.S. Treasury bonds of different maturities showed a differentiated trend. The 2 - year U.S. Treasury bond yield rose 3bp to 3.79%, and the 10 - year U.S. Treasury bond yield fell 1bp to 4.25%. The yield spreads of 2/10 - year and 5/30 - year U.S. Treasury bonds narrowed [23][24]. - European Bond Market: On March 19, the 10 - year Treasury bond yield of Spain remained unchanged, while the 10 - year Treasury bond yields of other major European economies generally increased [27]. - Daily Price Changes of Chinese - funded U.S. Dollar Bonds: As of the close on March 19, the prices of Chinese - funded U.S. dollar bonds showed different changes, with some rising and some falling [29].