Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Cautious Recommendation" rating for Huazhu Group [2] Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 6.5 billion RMB in Q4 2025, representing an 8.3% year-on-year increase, exceeding the upper limit of guidance [8] - Adjusted EBITDA for Q4 2025 was 2.19 billion RMB, a significant increase of 76.1% year-on-year [8] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for Q4 2025 reached 1.2 billion RMB, marking a substantial year-on-year growth [8] - The RevPAR for Legacy-Huazhu in Q4 2025 was 226 RMB, reflecting a 2.0% year-on-year increase, with ADR up by 4.1% [8] - The company opened 406 new hotels in Q4 2025, contributing to a total of 2,444 new hotels for the year, a historical high [8] - The company plans to open approximately 2,200 to 2,300 new hotels in 2026, supported by a reserve of 2,887 hotels [8] Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for 2026, 2027, and 2028 are 26.623 billion RMB, 28.167 billion RMB, and 29.773 billion RMB, respectively, with growth rates of 5.2%, 5.8%, and 5.7% [2] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 5.372 billion RMB, 5.775 billion RMB, and 6.348 billion RMB for 2026, 2027, and 2028, with growth rates of 5.7%, 7.5%, and 9.9% [2] - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 1.73 RMB, 1.86 RMB, and 2.04 RMB for the same years [2] - The current price corresponds to a PE ratio of 21, 19, and 17 for the years 2026, 2027, and 2028, respectively [2]
华住集团-S（01179）：2025Q4及全年业绩公告点评：经营企稳回升，2026年指引RevPAR微增