黑色金属日报-20260320

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread steel: ☆☆☆ [1] - Hot-rolled coil: ☆☆☆ [1] - Iron ore: ☆☆☆ [1] - Coke: ★★★ [1] - Coking coal: ☆☆☆ [1] - Silicomanganese: ★★★ [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★★★ [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The steel market is affected by factors such as demand recovery, production increase, and cost support, with short - term fluctuations and attention to the Iranian situation and peak - season demand [1] - The iron ore market has a marginal improvement in fundamentals but an overall loose supply pattern, and the disk is expected to be volatile [2] - The coke and coking coal markets are affected by geopolitical conflicts and have a tendency to be easy to rise and hard to fall [3][5] - The silicomanganese market is affected by factors such as mine shipments and iron - water production, and attention should be paid to weather impacts [6] - The ferrosilicon market has resilient demand and its price may be driven by silicomanganese [7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - The steel futures market continued to decline today. Thread steel's apparent demand and production increased this week, and inventory started to decline. Hot - rolled coil demand improved, production increased, and inventory decreased from a high level but the pressure remained [1] - After the conference, blast furnaces resumed production rapidly, and hot - metal production increased significantly. However, poor steel - mill profits restricted the future increase space [1] - From January - February data, real - estate investment decline narrowed, infrastructure and manufacturing investment growth increased, domestic demand improved marginally but its sustainability needed to be observed, and steel exports declined from a high level [1] - Macroeconomic sentiment weakened, putting pressure on the disk, but cost support was still strong under inflation expectations, and there would be short - term fluctuations [1] Iron Ore - The iron ore futures market rose today. On the supply side, global shipments fluctuated normally, domestic arrivals decreased, and port inventory declined this week, entering the seasonal destocking stage [2] - On the demand side, with the arrival of the peak season, terminal demand continued to recover, steel - mill production was profitable, and hot - metal production resumed significantly after the end of phased production restrictions [2] - External geopolitical conflicts continued, and rising oil prices provided short - term cost support. The overall supply pattern remained loose, and the disk was expected to be volatile [2] Coke - Coke prices rose during the day. Coking profits were average, and daily production increased slightly. Coke inventory changed little, and traders' purchasing willingness improved slightly [3] - Carbon supply was abundant, downstream hot - metal production increased significantly, and steel profit margins improved slightly. The coke disk was at a premium, and due to energy concerns from geopolitical conflicts, coke prices were likely to rise rather than fall [3] Coking Coal - Coking coal prices rose during the day. Yesterday, the Mongolian coal customs clearance volume was 1,461 vehicles. Coal - mine resumption was good, weekly production continued to increase slightly, and spot auction transactions were good this week, with prices rising [5] - The increase was mainly due to market concerns about energy, terminal inventory increased slightly, and restocking actions were limited. Total coking - coal inventory increased slightly, and production - end inventory decreased slightly [5] - Carbon supply was abundant, downstream hot - metal production increased significantly, and steel profit margins improved slightly. The coking - coal disk was at a large premium to Mongolian coal, but the suppression of high - level customs clearance data was weak. Due to energy concerns from geopolitical conflicts, coking - coal prices were likely to rise rather than fall [5] Silicomanganese - Silicomanganese prices fluctuated upward during the day. Attention should be paid to the impact of a typhoon in northeastern Australia on the manganese - ore shipments from Groote Eylandt [6] - Spot manganese - ore transaction prices continued to rise, port manganese - ore inventory decreased slightly, and mine shipments increased month - on - month, but mine costs were higher than in previous years, and the price - concession space might be limited [6] - On the demand side, hot - metal production increased significantly. Silicomanganese weekly production increased slightly, and inventory increased slightly. Attention should be paid to weather - related impacts [6] Ferrosilicon - Ferrosilicon prices fluctuated upward during the day. As spot prices followed the disk price increase, Inner Mongolia and Ningxia in the main production areas turned profitable, and the loss in other areas decreased [7] - On the demand side, hot - metal production remained at a low - season level. Export demand remained above 30,000 tons, with a marginal impact. Metal - magnesium production remained high, and secondary demand was relatively stable, with overall demand remaining resilient [7] - Ferrosilicon weekly supply decreased slightly, inventory increased, and prices might be driven by silicomanganese [7]