大类资产配置双周观点：油价冲击下的滞胀交易-20260320

Group 1: Core Insights - The core conclusion indicates a shift in global asset pricing from "growth-driven" to "safety-driven" due to energy shocks from geopolitical conflicts, raising stagflation expectations[2] - The Chinese bond market is currently weak, with the 10-year government bond yield slightly rising, reflecting a passive transmission of global interest rate increases[2] - The U.S. Treasury market is constrained by stagflation pricing, with core PCE rising to 3.1%, leading to a delay in interest rate cut expectations[2] Group 2: Asset Allocation Recommendations - For A-shares, the focus should be on technology (AI), safety (resources), and domestic demand, with an emphasis on undervalued sectors like non-bank financials and utilities in the short term[2] - The report suggests a defensive stance in U.S. Treasuries, recommending a focus on 2-5 year maturities to mitigate interest rate volatility[2] - The energy shock is reshaping global asset dynamics, with China showing resilience due to diversified energy sources and sufficient reserves[2] Group 3: Risks and Market Dynamics - Risks include potential escalation of geopolitical conflicts, inflation transmission not meeting expectations, and continued tightening of market liquidity[2] - The PPI-CPI spread has rebounded, indicating rising input cost pressures, while weak domestic demand limits price transmission to end consumers[2] - The report highlights that European and Japanese markets are particularly sensitive to geopolitical shocks due to their high energy dependency, facing significant inflationary pressures[2]