煤炭行业点评报告：焦煤崛起：推荐焦煤的十点理由

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [5] Core Insights - Global coking coal supply is weak while demand is strong, leading to an expected price increase [1] - The supply of coking coal from key producing countries is declining, with a projected CAGR of -0.7% from 2025 to 2030, while crude steel production is expected to grow at a CAGR of 0.9% during the same period [1] - The price gap for imported coking coal remains negative, with expectations of continued decline in imports due to the suspension of Russian coal exports [1] - Coking profits are improving due to rising oil and chemical prices, leading to increased inventory replenishment by companies [1] - Domestic demand for iron and steel is anticipated to rise, with daily average pig iron production increasing by 3.2% week-on-week [1] Summary by Sections Coking Coal Market - As of March 20, 2026, the average profit for various grades of coking coal in Shanxi, Shandong, and Hebei is 22 CNY/ton, 51 CNY/ton, and 45 CNY/ton respectively, driven by significant price increases in chemical products [1] - The price of Mongolian coking coal has risen to 1240 CNY/ton, a week-on-week increase of 5.5% [3] Steel Production - In the first two months of 2026, the production of raw coal, pig iron, crude steel, and steel products has shown a decline year-on-year, but the recovery in steel mills is expected to correct the supply-demand mismatch [3] Industry Development - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the need for a healthy industry development through capacity monitoring and regulation, aiming to mitigate "involution" competition [4] - The end of long-term contracts is expected to trigger a rise in coking coal prices, supported by global supply-demand dynamics and the coal-oil price ratio [4] Investment Recommendations - Companies to watch include Hengyuan Coal Power, Pingmei Shenma, Huaibei Mining, Shanxi Coking Coal, Lu'an Environmental Energy, and Kailuan Group, along with coking companies like Shanxi Coking, Jinneng Technology, Shaanxi Black Cat, Meijin Energy, and China Xuyang Group [4]