东方证券农林牧渔行业周报：合成胶价延续走强，天胶需求替代预期走向兑现

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the agriculture industry [6] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the demand for synthetic rubber is increasing, and the expectations for natural rubber demand replacement are being realized [10][36] - The report anticipates a recovery in pig prices, with cost-advantaged companies expected to continue improving performance [3][41] - The agricultural sector is seen as having high layout value due to rising upstream resource prices and geopolitical disturbances affecting supply-demand balance [10] Summary by Sections Investment Suggestions and Targets - The report recommends focusing on the pig farming sector, expecting a gradual reversal of pessimistic expectations after confirming bottom prices in the off-season. Key stocks include Muyuan Foods (002714, Buy), Wens Foodstuff Group (300498, Buy), and Shennong Group (605296, Not Rated) [3][41] - In the post-cycle sector, the structural growth trend continues, with profits in the breeding industry expected to gradually transmit downstream, benefiting the animal health sector. Relevant stocks include Haida Group (002311, Buy) and Ruipu Biological (300119, Not Rated) [3][41] - In the planting chain, commodity price increases have been transmitted to agriculture due to geopolitical factors. The current upward trend in grain prices is established, highlighting investment opportunities in large-scale planting. Relevant stocks include Suqian Agricultural Development (601952, Not Rated), Beidahuang (600598, Not Rated), Hainan Rubber (601118, Buy), Longping High-Tech (000998, Buy), and COFCO Sugar (600737, Buy) [3][41] - The pet food sector is experiencing growth, with increasing recognition of domestic brands and continuous growth of leading companies. Relevant stocks include Guibao Pet (301498, Not Rated), Zhongchong Co., Ltd. (002891, Not Rated), and Petty Co., Ltd. (300673, Not Rated) [3][41] Industry Fundamentals - The report notes that pig prices have been declining, with the national average price dropping to 9.9 yuan/kg, a 1.79% decrease week-on-week. The price of piglets has also fallen significantly [13][48] - White feather broiler prices have increased, with the price reaching 7.33 yuan/kg, a 1.66% increase week-on-week, driven by profitability in the breeding sector [17][48] - The report indicates that grain prices, including corn and wheat, have been rising, with corn prices at 2454.61 yuan/ton, up 0.32% week-on-week, and wheat prices at 2599.78 yuan/ton, up 0.86% week-on-week [27][48]