行业点评报告：焦煤崛起：推荐焦煤的十点理由

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [5] Core Insights - Global coking coal supply is weak while demand is strong, leading to an expected price increase [1] - The supply of coking coal from key producing countries is declining, with a projected CAGR of -0.7% from 2025 to 2030 [1] - Steel production is expected to grow at a CAGR of 0.9% during the same period, contributing to stable demand for coking coal [1] - The price gap for imported coking coal is negative, indicating a continued decline in imports [1] - Coking profits are improving due to rising oil and chemical prices, leading to increased inventory replenishment by companies [1] - Domestic demand is set to rise, with an increase in molten iron production expected [1] Summary by Sections Coking Coal Market Dynamics - As of March 20, 2026, the average profit for various grades of coking coal in Shanxi, Shandong, and Hebei is 22 CNY/ton, 51 CNY/ton, and 45 CNY/ton respectively [1] - The average price of Mongolian coking coal reached 1240 CNY/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 65 CNY/ton [3] - The production of main coking coal in Mongolia is not expected to grow significantly, with export targets remaining stable [3] Industry Trends - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the need for a healthy industry development by addressing "involution" competition [4] - The demand for building materials is recovering, driven by increased cement demand [2] - The domestic steel production is rebounding, which may help rectify the supply-demand mismatch in coking coal [3] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on coking coal companies such as Hengyuan Coal Power, Pingmei Shenma, Huai Bei Mining, Shanxi Coking Coal, Lu'an Environmental Energy, and Kailuan [4] - It also recommends coking companies like Shanxi Coking, Jinneng Technology, Shaanxi Black Cat, Meijin Energy, and China Xuyang Group [4]