申万宏源策略一周回顾展望：眼下可能已经是压力最大阶段

Group 1 - The report highlights that the current phase may represent the peak of pressure due to the ongoing stalemate in the US-Iran conflict, which continues to suppress risk appetite and leads to a short-term decline in funds supporting the "first phase of the rally" [1][4][5] - It emphasizes that mid-term uncertainties are underestimated, including the likelihood of increased inflation tolerance by both the US and China, the resilience of the US economy, and the potential for China's energy and supply chain security to become a global alpha [1][4][12] - The report draws parallels between the current situation and past oil crises, indicating that rising oil prices and freight costs could lead to inflation and monetary tightening, confirming a stagflation cycle that may impact stock market fundamentals and valuations [5][11] Group 2 - The A-share market is currently in a "two-phase rally" adjustment phase, with expectations of a rebound following a period of overselling, but the market is likely to remain in a range-bound state with potential for sector rotation [1][12][13] - Short-term investment recommendations focus on "reality-based" structures, particularly in CPO and energy storage sectors, which are expected to benefit from energy diversification and supply resilience trends [1][13][16] - The report suggests that the characteristics of the two-phase rally are consistent with historical patterns, indicating that the adjustment phase is not about switching styles but rather about the diffusion of leading sectors [1][14][16]