行业周报：猪价持续创新低拐点未现，二育谨慎与被动入库强化弱势

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The report highlights that pig prices continue to hit new lows without signs of a turning point, with cautious breeding and passive inventory accumulation reinforcing weakness in the market [3][4] - As of March 20, 2026, the national average price of live pigs dropped to 9.87 CNY/kg, continuing a downward trend [3][14] - The report indicates that the supply of pigs is abundant, with daily slaughter volumes significantly higher than the same period last year [14] Summary by Sections Weekly Observation - Pig prices remain at record lows, with a national average of 9.87 CNY/kg as of March 20, 2026, and high daily slaughter volumes [3][14] - The average weight of pigs at market is 128.62 kg, with significant weight differentiation between group farms and individual farmers [14] Market Performance (March 16-20) - The agricultural sector underperformed the market by 1.12 percentage points, with the agricultural index down 4.50% [7][36] - Notable stock performances include ST Jinggu (+6.04%), Zhongxing Junye (+4.51%), and Shennong Group (+1.13%) [36] Key News - The National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Agriculture held a meeting with pig farming enterprises to analyze price trends and market regulation strategies [6][45] - The Ministry of Agriculture released a policy list for 2026 aimed at supporting agricultural producers [6][45] Price Tracking (March 16-20) - The average price of live pigs was 9.99 CNY/kg, down 0.09 CNY/kg from the previous week, while the average price of piglets was 23.12 CNY/kg, down 1.24 CNY/kg [8][47] - The report notes a decrease in profits for self-breeding and purchased piglets, with average profits of -297.68 CNY/head and -141.48 CNY/head, respectively [8][47] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The inventory rate of frozen products was 18.60%, indicating a slight passive accumulation trend [4][18] - The breeding sector remains cautious, with a breeding barn utilization rate of 28.9% as of March 10, 2026, still at a low level [4][21] Breeding Stock Trends - The number of breeding sows showed a marginal increase, with a month-on-month growth of 0.65% in January and 0.73% in February 2026 [5][30] - Piglet prices have rapidly declined, with a price of 294 CNY/head as of March 17, 2026, reflecting weak replenishment demand [5][30]