——有色金属大宗金属周报（2026/3/16-2026/3/20）：滞胀风险上行，铜铝价格承压-20260322

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the non-ferrous metals industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The report highlights that inflationary risks are rising, putting pressure on copper and aluminum prices. Copper prices have seen declines of 5.60% in London, 5.55% in Shanghai, and 6.57% in New York. Domestic copper inventories are decreasing, while demand is expected to increase due to seasonal factors [5][24] - For aluminum, the report notes that inventory accumulation and inflationary trading are causing price adjustments. The price of aluminum has dropped by 5.20% in Shanghai and 5.70% in London, with domestic inventories continuing to rise [5][35] - Lithium prices are expected to rise due to ongoing inventory depletion and seasonal demand, despite a recent decline of 6.29% [5][79] - Cobalt prices are experiencing fluctuations, with a slight increase in domestic prices, and attention is drawn to the upcoming arrival of cobalt raw materials from the Democratic Republic of Congo [5][91] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The macroeconomic environment shows that the Federal Reserve maintained interest rates at 3.75%, aligning with expectations. Initial jobless claims in the U.S. were lower than anticipated, indicating a stable labor market [9] 2. Market Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector underperformed, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 3.38% and the Shenwan non-ferrous metals index down 11.82%, lagging behind the Shanghai index by 8.44 percentage points [11][12] 3. Valuation Changes - The PE_TTM for the Shenwan non-ferrous metals sector is 28.66, down by 2.94 from the previous week, while the PB_LF is 3.55, down by 0.36 [19][22] 4. Industrial Metals - Copper prices have decreased significantly, with inventories showing mixed trends. The report indicates a potential shift in the copper supply-demand balance towards a shortage in the medium to long term [24] - Aluminum prices are under pressure due to inventory increases and geopolitical factors affecting supply chains [35] - Lead and zinc prices have also seen declines, with lead prices down 1.63% and zinc prices down 6.41% [48] 5. Energy Metals - Lithium prices are under pressure but are expected to rise in the future due to demand growth and inventory depletion. Recent price adjustments include a 6.29% drop in carbonate lithium [79] - Cobalt prices are stable, with domestic prices showing slight increases, and the report emphasizes the importance of upcoming raw material supplies [91]