周策略图谱：曲线陡峭化下的攻守之道

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the impact of self-discipline in interbank deposits, the steepening of the yield curve, and the absence of a turning point in monetary policy, suggesting that adjustments in the long end are manageable. This creates opportunities to capitalize on the certainty of the short end and to speculate on the narrowing of term spreads [6][11][12]. Weekly Core Views and Bond Market Strategy - The main trading logic for the week revolves around three key themes: escalating geopolitical conflicts driving up oil prices, strong economic data from January and February reinforcing recovery expectations, and the ongoing impact of self-discipline in interbank demand supporting short-end performance [11][12]. - The self-discipline in interbank deposits is expected to lead to lower issuance rates for interbank certificates of deposit, as banks anticipate a decline in funding costs. This trend is further supported by a decrease in the yield on demand deposits, enhancing the demand for liquid alternative assets like interbank certificates [11][12]. - Geopolitical tensions have led to rising oil prices, creating temporary disturbances in the bond market. However, the report suggests that the actual impact of external inflation on domestic fundamentals and monetary policy remains limited, with the central bank likely to maintain a moderately accommodative stance [12][13]. - Economic data from January and February shows structural recovery, particularly in infrastructure investment, which supports investment stability. However, consumer recovery remains weak, and the real estate sector is still in a bottoming phase, indicating that domestic demand is insufficient [12][13]. Future Market Strategy - The report suggests maintaining a steep yield curve, with support for the short end and manageable risks for the long end. It recommends extending duration to speculate on opportunities for curve flattening. The strategy includes continuing to allocate to 1-year AA- certificates of deposit to capture short-end certainty [13]. - In terms of credit strategy, it is advised to continue investing in 3-5 year perpetual bonds, with a tilt towards 5-year products as the 3-year options approach their profit-taking points. High-yield real estate bonds are also recommended for defensive positioning against market volatility [13]. - The overall bond market is characterized by differentiation, with the short to medium end performing strongly while the long end experiences adjustments. The report notes a slight decline in funding rates during the week [13][16].