——转债周度跟踪20260320：重回起点，平衡转债开始出现机会-20260322

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report - This week, against the backdrop of the escalating conflict between the US and Iran, the equity market declined significantly, with small and micro - cap stocks experiencing large drops. Although the equal - weighted and weighted declines of convertible bonds were smaller than those of their underlying stocks, their anti - decline performance compared to the underlying stocks was not prominent compared to the fourth quarter of last year. This is because the valuation of convertible bonds continued to compress significantly, mainly in the balanced and bond - biased areas. There were many individual bonds in the balanced area experiencing a "double - kill" of parity and valuation, and the valuation of new bonds, near - maturity bonds, and bonds that did not undergo downward revisions in the bond - biased area also compressed significantly. Currently, the valuation of the convertible bond market has basically returned to the level at the end of last year, and the valuation has dropped to a short - term neutral range. If there is a substantial negative impact, the phased low of convertible bond valuation is expected to be around the 250 - day moving average (corresponding to a par premium rate of around 28%), and investors can seize the rebound opportunity. Structurally, considering the uncertainty of the equity market trend, there are still potential risk points such as near - maturity, downward revisions, and high valuations in the bond - biased and stock - biased areas. Recently, medium - term balanced convertible bonds with a large decline in valuation have relatively more advantages in both offense and defense [4][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week's View and Outlook - Different from the previous pattern where convertible bonds actively compressed valuation while the underlying stocks were relatively stable, this week, due to the escalating US - Iran conflict, the equity market declined significantly, and small and micro - cap stocks had large drops. The anti - decline performance of convertible bonds compared to the underlying stocks was not prominent, mainly because the valuation compression was concentrated in the balanced and bond - biased areas. The convertible bond market valuation has returned to the end - of - last - year level, and if there is a substantial negative impact, the phased low of valuation is expected to be around the 250 - day moving average. Medium - term balanced convertible bonds are relatively more advantageous [4][7]. 3.2 Convertible Bond Valuation - The escalating US - Iran conflict led to a continued increase in crude oil prices, a significant cooling of domestic risk appetite, and a large - scale compression of convertible bond valuation. The par premium rate dropped 1.7% to 30.1%, breaking through the key point. The valuation compression was mainly concentrated in the balanced and bond - biased areas, and the valuation of new bonds that had not entered the conversion period compressed by more than 5%. The compression range shifted from high - parity to medium - and low - parity intervals. In the 70 - 130 yuan parity interval, the valuation compression was about 2% - 3%, and the compression in the extremely low - parity area below 70 yuan was relatively large. In terms of individual bonds, in the high - parity interval above 140 yuan, some individual bonds such as Yitian, Dazhong, and Huachen had strong valuation performance, with an increase of more than 10%. In the 100 - 140 yuan parity interval, there were many "double - kill" individual bonds. In the bond - biased area below 100 yuan, new bonds, near - maturity bonds, and bonds that did not undergo downward revisions had the largest valuation compression. As of now, the valuation of convertible bonds in the 80 - 100 yuan parity interval and in the 1 - 2 - year and 4 - 5 - year term intervals is still slightly higher than the end - of - last - year level [6][8][10]. 3.3 Clause Tracking 3.3.1 Redemption - This week, 2 convertible bonds including Yuanxin and Huicheng announced redemptions, and 6 announced non - redemptions, with a forced redemption rate of 25%. Currently, there are 30 convertible bonds that have issued forced redemption or maturity redemption announcements and have not been delisted, and the potential conversion or maturity balance of forced - redeemed and matured convertible bonds among the non - delisted bonds is 9.9 billion yuan [6][27]. 3.3.2 Downward Revision - This week, Ruike proposed a downward revision, and 4 convertible bonds including Qiaoyin, Lanfan, and Baolai announced downward - revision results. Only Baolai did not revise to the bottom, and the others all revised to the bottom. As of now, 81 convertible bonds are in the temporary non - downward - revision range, 19 cannot be downward - revised due to net - asset constraints, 1 has triggered the downward - revision condition but has not issued an announcement, 22 are accumulating downward - revision days, and 3 have issued downward - revision board plans but have not gone to the general meeting of shareholders [6][35]. 3.3.3 Put Option - This week, Tiannai Convertible Bond issued a conditional put - option announcement. As of now, 1 convertible bond has issued a conditional put - option announcement, 11 are accumulating put - option trigger days, among which 10 are accumulating downward - revision days, and 1 proposed a downward revision [6][38]. 3.4 Primary Issuance - As of now, there are 4 convertible bonds in the approval - registration process, with a to - be - issued scale of 6.4 billion yuan; there are 12 convertible bonds in the listing - committee approval process, with a to - be - issued scale of 11.9 billion yuan [40].