生猪：主动去库启动，近端压力放大

1. Report Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Views - This week (March 16 - 22), the spot and futures markets of live pigs showed weak performance. The prices of 20KG piglets in Henan, live pigs in Henan, and 50KG binary sows nationwide all decreased. The average slaughter weight decreased by 0.04% week - on - week. The futures price of the LH2605 contract also declined, and the basis widened [1][2]. - Next week (March 23 - 29), the spot price of live pigs will continue to be weak. In March, enterprises' willingness to actively sell and destock has increased, but passive inventory accumulation is still occurring, and the price bottom has not been reached. From April to May, the supply pressure will be at a marginal high, and the market is expected to bottom out in April. The LH2605 contract may continue to decline, with a support level of 9500 yuan/ton and a pressure level of 10500 yuan/ton [3][4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review (3.16 - 3.22) Spot Market - Henan 20KG piglet price was 27.25 yuan/kg (last week: 28.7 yuan/kg), Henan live pig price was 9.93 yuan/kg (last week: 10.18 yuan/kg), and the national 50KG binary sow price was 1536 yuan/head (last week: 1541 yuan/head) [1]. - Supply side: Group enterprises' slaughter volume gradually increased, and there was passive pressure on the social side. Demand side: Slaughter volume continued to rise above the seasonal level, the volume of passive segmentation and storage increased, and the speculative demand for secondary fattening accelerated [1]. - The national average slaughter weight was 125.55KG (last week: 125.6KG), with a week - on - week decrease of 0.04% [1]. Futures Market - The highest price of the LH2605 contract was 11125 yuan/ton, the lowest was 10215 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 10220 yuan/ton (last week: 11150 yuan/ton) [2]. - The basis of the main contract was - 290 yuan/ton (last week: - 970 yuan/ton) [2]. 3.2 Market Outlook (3.23 - 3.29) Spot Market - In March, enterprises' willingness to actively sell and destock increased, and the slaughter volume was at a historical high in the same period. However, the weight did not decrease, and passive inventory accumulation was still occurring, indicating that the inventory volume far exceeded expectations, and the price bottom had not been reached [3]. - From the supply perspective, the supply of standard pigs will continue to increase until April 2026. After the Spring Festival, there has been continuous passive inventory accumulation, and the weight is at the highest level in the same period in recent years. The double pressure of the production capacity cycle and the inventory cycle will be realized from April to May, and the supply pressure will be at a marginal high [3]. - From the demand perspective, the market had strong expectations for the pre - Spring Festival peak season, driving forward - looking speculative demand in January. However, the negative feedback of downstream losses during the peak season emerged, resulting in the increase in peak - season demand falling short of expectations. After the spot price fell after the Spring Festival, the slaughter volume remained at a high level above the seasonal level, and the speculative demand for secondary fattening and segmentation and storage increased, further overdrawing the speculative demand [3]. - It is expected that the market will bottom out in April [3]. Futures Market - The price of the LH2605 contract closed at 10220 yuan/ton on March 20. The market recognized that the inventory base exceeded expectations, and inventory continued to accumulate and was difficult to release in the short term. The cycle bottom had not appeared, and the destocking process may continue from April to May. Current policies mention production capacity reduction and require enterprises to reduce weight, which may drive the near - end spot price to find the bottom faster. The price of the March contract fell to 9600 yuan/ton, opening the downward space for the May contract. There is still a premium - driven factor, and attention should be paid to stop - profit and stop - loss [4]. - The short - term support level of the LH2605 contract is 9500 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 10500 yuan/ton [4]. 3.3 Other Data - This week's basis was - 290 yuan/ton, and the LH2605 - LH2607 monthly spread was - 1060 yuan/ton [9]. - The average weight this week was 125.55KG (last week: 125.6KG) [13]. - In January, the pork production was 5.36 billion tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.7%. In February, the pork import was 5.21 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 22.77% [13].