国泰君安期货·能源化工：天然橡胶周度报告-20260322

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The natural rubber market lacks obvious positive drivers as the Thai cup rubber price has declined, weakening overseas cost support, and the sentiment for the domestic rubber tapping season is rising. However, on Friday night, BR prices surged significantly due to continuously rising production costs leading to substantial losses for production enterprises, along with an increase in the mainstream supply price and a strong expectation of short - and medium - term shortage of spot resources. The synthetic rubber is expected to remain relatively stronger than natural rubber in the short term, driving the "rubber series" to oscillate strongly. It is predicted that in the absence of obvious drivers in the natural rubber market, it will follow the overall sentiment of synthetic and energy - chemical products and fluctuate widely [100]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry News - In the first 11 months of the 2025 - 2026 fiscal year, Myanmar exported about 350,000 tons of rubber, with export revenue of about $500 million, mainly to China [5]. - In January - February 2026, China's tire outer - tube production decreased by 0.7% year - on - year to 177.526 million pieces, while synthetic rubber production increased by 8.5% year - on - year to 1.542 million tons [6]. - In the first two months of 2026, China's rubber tire export volume reached 1.55 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.5%, and the export value was 26.2 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.8% [6]. - In January 2026, the US imported 23.48 million tires, a year - on - year increase of 2.6% and a month - on - month increase of 2.5%. The number of tires imported from China was 1.66 million, a month - on - month increase of 12% and a year - on - year decrease of 21% [7]. 3.2 Market Trends - This week, domestic and international natural rubber futures generally declined, with RU leading the decline. On March 20, 2026, the closing price of RU2605 was 16,000 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 4.56% compared to March 13, 2026 [9][11]. 3.3 Basis and Calendar Spread - As of March 20, 2026, the basis of whole - milk rubber to RU05 was - 100 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 39.39% and a year - on - year increase of 77.53%. The 05 - 09 calendar spread was 50 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 47.37% and a year - on - year increase of 121.74% [12]. 3.4 Other Spreads - Spreads such as RU - NR, RU - BR, RU - JPX RSS3, and NR - SGX TSR20 decreased. For example, on March 20, 2026, the RU05 - NR05 spread was 3,135 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 9.00% [18][20]. - The spread between whole - milk rubber and Thai mixed rubber decreased, while the spread between 3L rubber and Thai mixed rubber increased. On March 20, 2026, the spread of whole - milk rubber to Thai mixed rubber was 820 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 21.90% [24][27]. 3.5 Substitute Prices - Due to the continuous intensification of military conflicts in the Middle East, the short - term supply of crude oil and downstream energy - chemical products has not been substantially alleviated. At the same time, Japan and South Korea continue to purchase butadiene resources from China, resulting in high production costs of domestic butadiene rubber [29]. 3.6 Capital Trends - The virtual - to - physical ratio and the settled funds of both RU and NR decreased. On March 20, 2026, the virtual - to - physical ratio of RU was 16.67, a month - on - month decrease of 8.66%, and the settled funds were 7.358 billion yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 9.59% [32][34]. 3.7 Supply - Southeast Asian main producing areas are in the dry season with less rainfall, and the temperature is generally normal, with slightly higher temperatures in Indonesia [37][41]. - Southeast Asian main producing countries are in the off - season, with tight and expensive raw materials. Yunnan in China and its surrounding areas in Laos have started tapping, and the new rubber supply is gradually being realized [43]. - In January 2026, Thailand's rubber exports decreased both year - on - year and month - on - month, but the export of smoked sheets was still relatively high compared to the same period in previous years. The quantity of rubber exported to China also decreased significantly [58][61]. - In February 2026, Indonesia's total natural rubber exports increased month - on - month, with a significant increase in the export of mixed rubber. The quantity exported to China also increased significantly [64]. - In January 2026, Vietnam's natural rubber exports decreased month - on - month but reached a high level in the same period in history, with a significant decline in latex exports. The quantity exported to China also decreased month - on - month [68]. - In February 2026, Cote d'Ivoire's total rubber exports decreased month - on - month, and the quantity exported to China decreased even more [72]. - From January to February 2026, China imported 1.1065 million tons of natural rubber (including mixed and composite rubber), a cumulative year - on - year increase of 1.37%. The import of Vietnamese standard rubber continued to decline, while the import of Indonesian mixed rubber and Cote d'Ivoire standard rubber was at a high level year - on - year [76]. 3.8 Demand - During the period, the capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises increased slightly. The whole - steel tires continued to reduce inventory, while the semi - steel tires started to accumulate inventory. It is expected that the capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises will remain at the current level in the next period [81]. - From January to February 2026, the exports of whole - steel and semi - steel tires were at a high level year - on - year, with year - on - year increases of 13.07% and 8.42% respectively. In February 2026, affected by the Spring Festival holiday, the sales of heavy - duty trucks and passenger cars decreased both year - on - year and month - on - month [82]. - From January to February 2026, the highway freight turnover increased by 5.56% year - on - year, while the passenger turnover decreased by 2.38% year - on - year [87]. 3.9 Inventory - China's natural rubber inventory continued to decline, with both dark and light - colored rubbers decreasing, and the decline of dark - colored rubber inventory was significant. As of March 13, 2026, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.3649 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.13% [92]. - As of March 20, 2026, the futures inventory of natural rubber at the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 125,400 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.81%, and the futures and spot inventory was 137,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.16% [95].