——流动性与机构行为周度跟踪260322：央行淡化降息预期，税期资金缘何平稳-20260322

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the document. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Despite increased external disturbances such as tax - period outflows and government bond net payments, the current liquidity remains loose, which may be due to cash inflows and fiscal expenditure. The central bank's attitude of maintaining a wait - and - see stance and downplaying the expectation of interest rate cuts also contributes to the loose liquidity environment. The probability of the central bank's systematic tightening is limited, especially at the end of the quarter, but potential fluctuations in the capital market after the quarter - end need to be monitored [5][50][53]. - The net payment of government bonds will increase next week, and there are multiple external disturbances. However, considering the central bank's strong willingness to maintain stable liquidity, the loose liquidity pattern is expected to continue [11][77][81]. - Forecasts for government bond issuance and net financing in March and the second quarter of 2026 are provided. It is estimated that the net financing of government bonds in March will be 1.07 trillion, and the cumulative net financing in the first quarter will be about 3.67 trillion. The cumulative net financing in the second quarter is expected to be about 3.6 trillion, slightly lower than the same period in 2025 [7][10][72]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Money Market 3.1.1 This Week's Capital Review - The central bank's OMO had a net injection of 6.58 billion yuan this week. Despite tax - period outflows and over 30 billion yuan in government bond net payments, the capital remained loose. DR001 stayed at 1.32% for 5 consecutive days, and R007 dropped below 1.5% [3][16]. - The trading volume of pledged repurchase fluctuated within a narrow range, with the daily average trading volume decreasing by 0.2 trillion yuan to 8.37 trillion yuan compared to last week. The overall scale of pledged repurchase remained around 12 trillion yuan, slightly lower than last week. The net lending of large - scale banks decreased, while that of small and medium - sized banks increased. The net lending of non - banks had limited changes, with insurance and wealth management lending increasing, and other products and money market funds lending decreasing. The net borrowing of non - banks first decreased and then increased, generally lower than last week. The capital gap index also fluctuated within a narrow range, remaining at a relatively low level [4][25]. - The progress of cross - quarter capital in mid - to - early March was slow, and the gap compared to previous years widened after 14 - day funds could cross the quarter. As of the 20th, the cross - quarter progress of inter - bank institutions reached the lowest level in recent years; the cross - month progress of the exchange market was only slightly higher than that in 2022; the cross - month progress of the entire market was at a low of 7.0%, 3.9 percentage points lower than the historical average [31]. - The loose capital may be due to cash inflows and fiscal expenditure. The excess reserve ratio in February rose to 1.2%, and the broad fiscal deficit exceeded expectations by 15 billion yuan, leading to a larger - than - expected decrease in government deposits. Even if there is a net withdrawal of 50 billion yuan from OMO and MLF in March, the excess reserve ratio is still expected to reach 1.4% [5][42]. - The stability of DR001 at 1.32% for 6 trading days around the tax period may be related to the central bank's stability - maintenance. The central bank downplayed the expectation of interest rate cuts but maintained a loose environment to avoid potential impacts on the bond market [50][53]. 3.1.2 Next Week's Capital Outlook - This week, the net payment of government bonds was 30.63 billion yuan. Next week, the issuance of 7 - year treasury bonds will be 17.5 billion yuan, and assuming the 91 - day discounted treasury bonds are the same as the previous value, the total treasury bond issuance will be about 21.5 billion yuan. Thirteen regions will issue local bonds with a total scale of 30.86 billion yuan. Considering the 36 billion yuan of treasury bonds issued this Friday will be paid next week, the net payment of government bonds will rise to 60.64 billion yuan [54]. - The 7 - day reverse repurchase maturity scale will rise to 24.23 billion yuan next week, and there will be 45 billion yuan of MLF maturing on Wednesday. The net payment of government bonds will increase, mainly concentrated on Monday and Wednesday. Wednesday is also the reserve payment day. The online issuance of the new stock of Longyuan Co., Ltd. on the Beijing Stock Exchange is expected to have a certain impact on the exchange capital price from Monday to Tuesday. However, considering the central bank's strong willingness to maintain stable liquidity, the loose liquidity pattern is expected to continue [77][81]. 3.2 Inter - bank Certificates of Deposit - This week, the 1 - year Shibor rate decreased by 2.1 BP to 1.555% compared to March 13th. The secondary rate of 1 - year AAA - rated inter - bank certificates of deposit decreased by 1.75 BP to 1.515% [82]. - The issuance scale of inter - bank certificates of deposit decreased while the maturity scale increased. The net financing of state - owned banks, joint - stock banks, city commercial banks, and rural commercial banks was - 31.44 billion yuan, - 8.87 billion yuan, - 3.31 billion yuan, and 0.34 billion yuan respectively. The issuance proportion of 1 - year certificates of deposit decreased by 6 percentage points to 35%. Next week, the maturity scale of certificates of deposit will be about 69.93 billion yuan, a decrease of 47.39 billion yuan compared to this week [83]. - The issuance success rates of state - owned banks and joint - stock banks decreased, while those of city commercial banks and rural commercial banks increased, and all banks were around the average level in recent years. The issuance spread of 1 - year certificates of deposit between city commercial banks and joint - stock banks widened [87]. - The relative supply - demand strength index of certificates of deposit increased overall, with the willingness of money market funds to increase holdings in both the primary and secondary markets significantly enhanced. The demand from funds and wealth management products was relatively stable. The index increased by 6.3 percentage points to 29.1% throughout the week, in line with the seasonal pattern of recovery in March. Except for the 1 - month supply - demand index, the supply - demand indices of other maturities increased [98]. 3.3 Bill Market This week, bill interest rates decreased slightly. As of March 20th, the 3 - month and 6 - month bill interest rates of national - owned and joint - stock banks decreased by 5 BP and 6 BP respectively to 1.43% and 1.17% compared to March 13th [103]. 3.4 Bond Trading Sentiment Tracking - This week, the interest rate curve continued to steepen, and the spread of Tier 2 and perpetual bonds slightly narrowed. Large - scale banks generally tended to increase bond holdings, but their willingness to increase treasury bond holdings declined, especially for 10 - year treasury bonds. Their willingness to increase holdings of 1 - 3 - year and 7 - year treasury bonds and 7 - year policy - financial bonds increased, and their willingness to reduce holdings of Tier 2 and perpetual bonds and 1 - 3 - year policy - financial bonds decreased [105]. - The overall willingness of trading - type institutions to reduce bond holdings decreased. Securities companies' willingness to reduce holdings decreased, fund companies tended to increase holdings, and other institutions and products' willingness to increase holdings increased [105]. - The overall willingness of allocation - type institutions to increase bond holdings significantly decreased. Small and medium - sized banks tended to reduce holdings, and the willingness of insurance companies and wealth management products to increase holdings decreased [105].