Guolian Minsheng Securities·2026-03-22 07:45Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies in the non-ferrous metals sector, including Zijin Mining, China Gold International, and Shandong Gold [4]. Core Insights - The report highlights ongoing inflationary pressures due to geopolitical tensions, particularly the US-Iran conflict, which has led to a significant drop in gold prices, marking the largest weekly decline in 43 years. However, the long-term outlook for gold remains positive due to central bank purchases and weakening US dollar credit [2]. - The report emphasizes the dichotomy in the gold market between short-term panic and mid-term opportunities, suggesting that the demand for safe-haven assets will likely support gold prices in the future [2]. - Industrial demand for silver may continue to be impacted by the trend of cheap metalization in photovoltaic materials, which could lead to increased costs for silver paste and a potential upward shift in the gold-silver ratio [2]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry and Company Performance - The report notes a significant decline in the SW Non-ferrous Index, which fell by 12.29% during the week, alongside a 10.57% drop in COMEX gold and a 15.92% drop in COMEX silver [10]. - Industrial metal prices for aluminum, copper, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin experienced declines of -7.18%, -7.07%, -7.21%, -0.74%, -2.51%, and -11.27% respectively [10]. 2. Base Metals 2.1 Price and Stock Correlation Review - The report provides a detailed analysis of price movements and stock correlations for various base metals, indicating a complex interplay of macroeconomic factors affecting valuations [20]. 2.2 Industrial Metals - Aluminum prices are under pressure due to geopolitical tensions and a strong US dollar, with domestic demand showing signs of recovery as downstream processing rates increase [27]. - Copper prices are experiencing downward pressure from reduced interest rate expectations and geopolitical risks, but there is a notable increase in downstream purchasing activity as prices decline [46]. - Zinc prices are fluctuating due to geopolitical uncertainties and inventory levels, with domestic consumption gradually improving [58]. 3. Precious Metals and Minor Metals 3.1 Precious Metals - The report indicates that gold prices are facing downward pressure due to liquidity risks and inflation expectations, but the long-term outlook remains bullish due to central bank buying [2]. - Silver prices are also under pressure, with industrial demand potentially affected by changes in photovoltaic material production [2]. 3.2 Energy Metals - Lithium prices are expected to remain stable in the short term, while cobalt supply may tighten due to export controls in the Democratic Republic of Congo [10]. - Nickel prices are supported by supply uncertainties in Indonesia, but demand remains cautious due to high prices [10]. 4. Rare Earths - The report does not provide specific insights on rare earths in this section, focusing instead on the broader trends in the non-ferrous metals market [12].