商品期权周报:2026年第12周-20260322
Dong Zheng Qi Huo·2026-03-22 08:12
- Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The trading activity in the commodity options market decreased this week, with the average daily trading volume at 8.28 million lots and the average daily open interest at 9.05 million lots, showing a -22.31% and +5.14% change respectively compared to the previous period. The geopolitical impact in the Middle East led to a continued strong upward trend in commodity option underlying assets, especially in the energy and chemical sectors. Many varieties' implied volatility is at a high level in the past year, and investors are advised to pay attention to short - volatility opportunities [1][8][17]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Commodity Option Market Activity - The trading activity in the commodity options market decreased from March 16 to March 20, 2026. The average daily trading volume was 8.28 million lots, and the average daily open interest was 9.05 million lots, with a -22.31% and +5.14% change respectively compared to the previous period. The actively traded varieties included styrene (770,000 lots), methanol (650,000 lots), and silver (520,000 lots). Three varieties' trading volume doubled, namely asphalt (+368%), lead (+191%), and silver (+112%). The varieties with a significant decline in trading volume were staple fiber (-84%), propylene (-84%), and caustic soda (-75%). The varieties with high average daily open interest were soybean meal (750,000 lots), cotton (550,000 lots), and corn (520,000 lots). The varieties with a rapid increase in average daily open interest were asphalt (+154%) and p - xylene (+102%) [1][8]. 3.2 This Week's Key Data Review of Commodity Options - Underlying Asset Price Movements: Affected by the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, commodity option underlying assets, especially in the energy and chemical sectors, continued to rise. The varieties with high weekly increases included LPG (+19.08%), ethylene glycol (+13.20%), and methanol (+11.66%); the varieties with high weekly decreases included silver (-15.76%), polysilicon (-10.17%), and tin (-8.45%) [2][17]. - Market Volatility: The geopolitical impact in the Middle East kept the market sentiment high. The implied volatility of 47 varieties was above the 80th percentile of the past year. The varieties with a significant increase in implied volatility included ethylene glycol (+14.27pct), gold (+11.49pct), and tin (+10.01pct); the varieties with a significant decrease in implied volatility included pure benzene (-85.51pct), styrene (-54.17pct), and p - xylene (-36.17pct) [2][17]. - Option Market Sentiment: Currently, the trading volume PCR of silver, copper, lithium carbonate, and industrial silicon is at a historical high, indicating a short - term concentrated bet on a downward trend; the trading volume PCR of oilseeds, LPG, soda ash, and urea is at a one - year low, indicating a concentrated bet on an upward trend. The open interest PCR of PVC, asphalt, plastic, and soybean meal is at a historical high, indicating a high level of bearish sentiment; the open interest PCR of live pigs, silver, polysilicon, and rapeseed meal is at a one - year low, indicating a bullish sentiment [3][18]. 3.3 Key Data Overview of Major Varieties - This chapter presents key data of major varieties, including trading volume, volatility, and option market sentiment indicators. More detailed data can be found on the Dongzheng Fanwei official website (https://www.finoview.com.cn/) [23]. - Energy: Relevant charts show the total trading volume, volatility, open interest PCR, and trading volume PCR of crude oil [24][25][26]. - Chemicals: - PTA: Charts display the total trading volume, volatility, open interest PCR, and trading volume PCR of PTA [30][31][33]. - Caustic Soda: Charts show the total trading volume, volatility, open interest PCR, and trading volume PCR of caustic soda [40][41][42]. - Glass: Charts present the total trading volume, volatility, open interest PCR, and trading volume PCR of glass [49][50][52]. - Soda Ash: Charts show the total trading volume, volatility, open interest PCR, and trading volume PCR of soda ash [58][59][60]. - Precious Metals: Charts show the total trading volume, volatility, open interest PCR, and trading volume PCR of silver [66][71][68]. - Ferrous Metals: - Iron Ore: Charts display the total trading volume, volatility, open interest PCR, and trading volume PCR of iron ore [75][76][77]. - Silicomanganese: Charts show the total trading volume, volatility, open interest PCR, and trading volume PCR of silicomanganese [84][85][86]. - Non - Ferrous Metals: - Copper: Charts present the total trading volume, volatility, open interest PCR, and trading volume PCR of copper [92][93][95]. - Aluminum: Charts show the total trading volume, volatility, open interest PCR, and trading volume PCR of aluminum [101][102][103]. - Agricultural Products: - Soybean Meal: Charts display the total trading volume, volatility, open interest PCR, and trading volume PCR of soybean meal [109][110][114]. - Palm Oil: Charts show the total trading volume, volatility, open interest PCR, and trading volume PCR of palm oil [118][119][121]. - Cotton: Charts present the total trading volume, volatility, open interest PCR, and trading volume PCR of cotton [126][128][130].