投资策略周报：历次海外冲击复盘，A股修复行情大有可为-20260322

Group 1 - The market is still confirming the expectation gap regarding the ongoing Middle East conflict, which has expanded in intensity and scope, affecting energy facilities, shipping, and regional political structures [4][13][14] - Since 2020, A-shares have shown resilience against global public events, with negative impacts typically concluding within a week. During prolonged shocks, the strategy should focus on reducing positions and controlling risks [19][20] - The next significant signal for market recovery is expected to be the convergence of oil price volatility rather than the final price level itself [23][24] Group 2 - In the adjustment phase, dividend stocks are favored, particularly during the late stages of a bear market, where their relative return advantages are amplified. However, dividend assets remain risk assets and may not provide absolute returns [6][27] - Industry performance during external shocks has shown that sectors with independent industrial prosperity perform best. For instance, during the Ukraine conflict, sectors like pharmaceuticals and energy security (coal) excelled, and similar trends are expected in the current Middle East situation [6][32][33] - The investment strategy emphasizes a defensive approach before the next major signal appears, focusing on high-dividend stocks and sectors benefiting from rising industrial demand and energy security [44] Group 3 - Historical analysis indicates that A-shares have become more resilient to external shocks since 2020, with a significant reduction in the duration and magnitude of declines during such events [22][24] - The probability of index recovery after external shocks has increased, with most indices recovering to pre-shock levels within one month, particularly in the current bull market context [25][24] - The report suggests that the current geopolitical risks primarily affect China indirectly, with manageable energy dependencies and a supportive regulatory environment aiding market stability [42][43]