中泰期货PVC产业链周报：PVC+NAOH+CL-20260322

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, PVC production decreased slightly, with the calcium carbide method increasing its load and the ethylene method decreasing its load. After the upstream ethylene reduces its load next week, ethylene - based PVC production will decrease, and overall PVC production is expected to continue to decline. The export order volume has slightly recovered. Even if the export tax rebate for PVC is cancelled, it is expected to have a price competitive advantage. The apparent demand for this week was slightly lower than expected, and the inventory decreased by 33,200 tons this week, with further inventory reduction expected next week. The spot price of caustic soda fluctuated strongly, the calcium carbide price increased this week, the price of ethylene increased significantly, and the export profit of PVC improved significantly. Attention should be paid to whether ethylene - based PVC will continue to cut production, the impact of next - week's warehouse receipt cancellation on the spot, and the risk of price correction [6][9][10] Summary According to the Directory 1. Spot Market - PVC Supply and Demand: This week's total PVC production was 489,900 tons, a decrease of 7,500 tons from last week. The ethylene - based production was 125,600 tons, a decrease of 15,200 tons, and the calcium carbide - based production was 364,200 tons, an increase of 7,700 tons. The weekly average import and export volumes remained unchanged at 5,000 tons and 67,500 tons respectively. The apparent demand was 460,500 tons, a decrease of 59,300 tons from last week. The total inventory was 975,900 tons, a decrease of 33,200 tons from last week. It is expected that next week's production will be 459,000 tons and 453,500 tons in the following week, and the apparent demand will be 449,100 tons and 426,800 tons respectively, with the inventory continuing to decrease [6] - Related Product Prices: The price of 32% caustic soda rose from 630 yuan/ton last week to 650 yuan/ton this week. The price of Shandong liquid chlorine dropped from 300 yuan/ton to 100 yuan/ton. The prices of Shandong raw salt and Shaanxi semi - coke remained stable. The prices of calcium carbide in Shandong, Shaanxi, and Wuhai increased by 150 yuan/ton, 175 yuan/ton, and 100 yuan/ton respectively. The prices of ethylene and VCM also increased [7] 2. Basis and Spread - Basis: The basis of calcium carbide - based PVC in East China, South China, and Shandong all weakened, with the East China calcium carbide - based basis dropping from - 14 yuan/ton last week to - 180 yuan/ton this week [9] - Inter - month Spread: The 9 - 1 inter - month spread strengthened from - 1 last week to 59 this week, while the 5 - 9 spread weakened from - 18 to - 34 [9] 3. Industrial Chain Profits - Production Profits: The calcium carbide production profit in Shaanxi increased from - 502 yuan/ton last week to - 327 yuan/ton this week. The production profits of some PVC production methods changed, such as the Northwest integrated PVC profit decreasing from 405 yuan/ton to 285 yuan/ton, and the imported ethylene - based PVC profit dropping from - 244 yuan/ton to - 1470 yuan/ton [9] - Import and Export Profits: The FOB Tianjin relative export profit increased from 916 yuan/ton last week to 925 yuan/ton this week, and the theoretical export profits to India and Southeast Asia increased significantly, by 925 yuan/ton and 1645 yuan/ton respectively [9] 4. Market Outlook - Upstream: The price of upstream PVC fluctuated, the price of caustic soda strengthened, and the comprehensive profit slightly declined. The calcium carbide - based production increased, and the ethylene - based production may decline. Attention should be paid to the load - reduction situation of the upstream cracking units [10] - Mid - stream: Traders mainly adopted the spot - futures arbitrage strategy, but the shipment situation has slightly deteriorated. The cancellation of warehouse receipts next week may suppress the spot [10] - Downstream: The downstream operating rate is still weak, but there is a slight situation of inventory replenishment [10] - Strategies: Pay attention to spot - futures arbitrage opportunities. Be cautious of the risk of correction for unilateral trading. Temporarily exit the 5 - 9 positive spread arbitrage. There is no option strategy for now [10]