投资策略周报：滞胀与俄乌的配置经验-20260322

Core Insights - The report emphasizes that the Russia-Ukraine conflict has significantly impacted global inflation and economic conditions, extending the duration of high inflation rather than initiating a new round of global reflation [5] - The liquidity environment has tightened due to the conflict, increasing pressure on monetary policy across major economies, which has affected asset pricing through interest rates and stock market performance [5] - The report suggests a "HALO PLUS" strategy for asset allocation, focusing on defensive cash flow and offensive low-crowding growth sectors, particularly in coal, utilities, and construction for defense, while targeting commercial aerospace, batteries, and military themes for growth [6] Group 1: Impact of the Russia-Ukraine Conflict - The conflict has pushed inflation in Europe and the U.S. from around 6% to approximately 10% over six months, maintaining a high inflation rate of over 3% for nearly two years [19][20] - Japan's inflation, initially low, has risen due to energy price shocks, with CPI remaining above 2% for an extended period, indicating a different inflationary dynamic compared to the U.S. and Europe [20] - China's CPI has been less affected, primarily driven by structural price disturbances rather than a sustained inflationary trend [20] Group 2: Historical Inflation Experiences - Historical periods of stagflation in China, such as from June 2007 to February 2008 and January 2010 to July 2011, show that early stagflation phases are characterized by high commodity prices and resilient growth, with a shift to valuation and earnings certainty logic as tightening occurs [11][14] - In the 2007-2008 period, upstream cyclical sectors significantly outperformed, with coal prices rising by 49%, chemicals by 46%, and non-ferrous metals by 44%, reflecting strong demand and price increases [15][16] - The 2010-2011 period saw a market shift where defensive consumption sectors and small-cap growth stocks outperformed as inflationary pressures peaked and monetary tightening began [17][18]