国债期货周报-20260322

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The medium - term view on the treasury bond futures market is to maintain an overall outlook of being range - bound with a downward bias due to factors such as the relatively restrained monetary policy of the central bank, the shift in inflation expectations, the orientation of medium - and long - term funds entering the market, and the inability to falsify policy expectations [1][4] Summary According to Related Catalogs 1. Weekly Focus and Market Tracking - This week, the ultra - long end of the treasury bond futures market opened with a gap down on Monday, gradually recovered but was suppressed by the 10 - day moving average, and fell again on Friday [4] - The market shows a differentiated feature of short - end stability and long - end volatility. The spread between 30 - year and 10 - year treasury bonds is at a relatively high historical quantile. The long - end is at a high level due to inflation expectations and economic data recovery, while the short - end is relatively stable supported by the capital market. In the short term, it is not advisable to overly bet on a rebound, and one can expect the short - end to drive the long - end interest rate to repair [6] 2. Liquidity Monitoring and Curve Tracking - Not provided 3. Seat Analysis - Daily changes in net long positions by institutional type: private funds increased by 0.88%, foreign capital increased by 3.96%, and wealth management subsidiaries increased by 3.17%. Weekly changes: private funds increased by 3.84%, foreign capital increased by 2.12%, and wealth management subsidiaries increased by 0.36% [10]